047
FXUS64 KFWD 221842
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1242 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
AND HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A MUCH WARMER DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WITH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. RADAR THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO AND ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BASED ON CAMS
AND GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER, RAIN WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AND ON THE
LIGHT SIDE SO POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR
I-20 TO HIGH CHANCE POPS AT OUR SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WAA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS THAT WILL SEE RAIN IN NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIM
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN NORTH TEXAS AS
TEMPERATURES COULD BE CLOSE TO FREEZING. LIKE WE SAW IN OUR
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES THIS MORNING, THOUGH, SHOULD ANY FZRA OCCUR
IT WOULD BE BRIEF AND OF LITTLE IMPACT. ALL RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER DAY
ANTICIPATED AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. HIGHS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S IN OUR EAST UP TO THE UPPER 60S IN OUR
WEST. WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
GET CHILLY ONCE AGAIN INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 338 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025/
/SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND/
IF YOU'RE TIRED OF THE COLD, YOU'RE IN LUCK! WARMER WEATHER IS
JUST ON THE HORIZON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY NEXT WEEK, WITH COOL MORNINGS
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT AT THIS TIME. WE ARE MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN WITH THE COLD FRONT,
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
THAT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SUFFICIENT PRIOR TO THE FRONT'S
ARRIVAL. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN-FREE
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH MORE NOTABLE MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS DECENT
CONSENSUS AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH MAY ENCOMPASS A BROADER PORTION OF
THE CWA AS COMPARED TO THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. STAY TUNED, AND ENJOY
THE WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK!
BARNES
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT METROPLEX AIRPORTS THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS TODAY AND CIGS AROUND 3.5K FT DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. FOR ACT, OVERCAST CIGS AT 5K FT WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH VCSH ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ACT WILL SEE WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
MORNING.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 35 61 40 71 47 / 20 5 0 0 0
WACO 39 60 39 72 47 / 20 5 0 0 0
PARIS 31 57 35 67 42 / 10 5 0 0 0
DENTON 34 60 36 70 43 / 20 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 34 59 37 69 44 / 20 5 0 0 0
DALLAS 36 61 40 71 47 / 20 5 0 0 0
TERRELL 34 58 37 68 45 / 20 10 0 0 0
CORSICANA 39 58 39 70 48 / 20 10 0 0 0
TEMPLE 36 61 38 73 45 / 20 5 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 33 64 36 76 43 / 20 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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