318
FXUS64 KFWD 260930
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
430 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE METROPLEX THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (80 TO 90 PERCENT) ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RANGE FROM 1/2 TO
2 INCHES WITH HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1257 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025/
/THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING/
..TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ORIENTED ALONG A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST BAND, AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS CONTINUED TO WANE
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ISOLATED POCKETS OF LARGE HAIL
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS, PRIMARILY
NORTH OF US-380 AND EAST OF I-35. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH MORE TO POTENTIAL IMPACTS
FROM HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE TRAINING NATURE OF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. A CORRIDOR OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN APPEARS PROBABLE
(50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE) WHEREVER THE AXIS OF THE TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS LINE UP. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN GRAYSON COUNTY INTO
HOPKINS COUNTY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT
TRACK OF THESE STORMS, SO THIS BAND OF HIGHER PRECIP MAY SHIFT
EAST OR WEST BY A COUNTY DEPENDING ON STORM CONFIGURATION THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BY MID-DAY WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SPLIT, WITH A RIDGE IN THE POLAR JET
AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE SUP-TROPICAL JET WILL
FEATURE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BAJA OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU,
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BULK
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH WHERE MOST OF THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL RESIDE. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, HEIGHT FALLS AND THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES (80 TO 90 PERCENT)
LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR FOR THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.
DARRAH
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS TEXAS FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PER LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE.
MAIN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS THE EWX AND HGX AREAS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL
LOOK TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY MORNING
THEN INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS. CATEGORICAL
POPS APPEAR WARRANTED AREAWIDE WITH LATEST NBM PRECIP CHANCES
PEAKING IN THE 80-90 PERCENT RANGE. LATEST WPC QPF ALSO APPEARS
MORE REASONABLE THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK, RANGING FROM 1/4 INCH IN
OUR FAR NORTHWEST TO AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE IN OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK PLACES OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN A
MARGINAL RISK ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR, LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH
VERY POOR NEAR-MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA
LOOKS LOW.
OVER THE WEEKEND, A LARGE AND BROAD H5 TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS PER 00Z GUIDANCE, WITH STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP A CLASSIC WEST TEXAS DRYLINE. THIS
DRYLINE LOOKS TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN INTO EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, SO NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THAT
TIME. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, HOWEVER, CAP LOOKS
TO ERODE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS, HIGH MLCAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG, AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8.0 C/KM ALL INDICATE SOME
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TORNADO THREAT APPEARS QUITE LOW AS 0-3KM SRH LOOKS TO BE QUITE
WEAK AT LESS THAN 100 M2/S2. SPC HAS ACCORDINGLY INCLUDED OUR
EASTERN HALF IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE MID
70S SOUTH. THIS COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORTLIVED, HOWEVER, AS WE WARM
BACK INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH AFTER THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, GULF MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY RETURN
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
DRYLINE SETUP AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. TIS THE SEASON!
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1257 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025/
/THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY. THOUGH
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES IN THE
METROPLEX, EXPECT POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES
FROM/TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL (30 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE), BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z, FOR OUTFLOW FROM THESE
STORMS TO TURN SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IN THE
METROPLEX. SHOULD THE WIND CHANGE OCCUR, SURFACE FLOW WOULD REVERT
BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY 17Z.
DARRAH
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EVEN IF ACTIVATION IS
NOT LOCALLY REQUESTED, ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 63 76 60 75 / 30 0 50 80 70
WACO 81 63 68 61 73 / 10 20 70 80 70
PARIS 69 57 76 60 69 / 70 5 20 50 80
DENTON 77 59 77 56 74 / 40 0 50 70 70
MCKINNEY 74 60 76 58 74 / 50 5 40 70 80
DALLAS 79 64 76 61 73 / 30 0 50 80 80
TERRELL 76 61 75 60 73 / 30 0 50 70 80
CORSICANA 81 64 75 61 75 / 10 5 50 70 80
TEMPLE 81 61 70 61 76 / 5 40 90 80 70
MINERAL WELLS 82 60 77 56 78 / 10 5 70 80 60
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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