410
FXUS64 KFWD 261811
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
111 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND EAST
OF THE DFW METROPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT OR DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (80 TO 90 PERCENT) ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RANGE FROM 1/2 TO
2 INCHES WITH HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING/
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN SWATH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS (JUST SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER). THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR EXIT OUR
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF MODERATE-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WE CAN'T RULE
OUT ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR
CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED BUT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR STRONG WINDS. THE
MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4-9PM BUT SOME CAN
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER. BETTER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MORE DETAILS IN THE LONG-TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW.
SANCHEZ
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025/
/THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS TEXAS FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PER LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE.
MAIN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS THE EWX AND HGX AREAS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL
LOOK TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY MORNING
THEN INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS. CATEGORICAL
POPS APPEAR WARRANTED AREAWIDE WITH LATEST NBM PRECIP CHANCES
PEAKING IN THE 80-90 PERCENT RANGE. LATEST WPC QPF ALSO APPEARS
MORE REASONABLE THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK, RANGING FROM 1/4 INCH IN
OUR FAR NORTHWEST TO AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE IN OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK PLACES OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN A
MARGINAL RISK ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR, LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH
VERY POOR NEAR-MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA
LOOKS LOW.
OVER THE WEEKEND, A LARGE AND BROAD H5 TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS PER 00Z GUIDANCE, WITH STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP A CLASSIC WEST TEXAS DRYLINE. THIS
DRYLINE LOOKS TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN INTO EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, SO NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THAT
TIME. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, HOWEVER, CAP LOOKS
TO ERODE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS, HIGH MLCAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG, AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8.0 C/KM ALL INDICATE SOME
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TORNADO THREAT APPEARS QUITE LOW AS 0-3KM SRH LOOKS TO BE QUITE
WEAK AT LESS THAN 100 M2/S2. SPC HAS ACCORDINGLY INCLUDED OUR
EASTERN HALF IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE MID
70S SOUTH. THIS COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS WE WARM
BACK INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH AFTER THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, GULF MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY RETURN
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
DRYLINE SETUP AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. TIS THE SEASON!
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS THURSDAY MORNING WITH RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE ONGOING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
EASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IMPACT KACT
AROUND 15Z THURSDAY. IT WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
AND IMPACT THE DFW METROPLEX SITES AFTER 21Z. GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE OF THE PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF TS, ONLY VCSH HAS BEEN
ADDED FOR NOW.
THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT THE PROBABILITIES REMAIN AROUND
40-60% AT THIS TIME. CHANCES ARE HIGHER FOR ACT (AROUND 70%).
WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
THE COVERAGE OF RAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
SANCHEZ
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 64 76 60 75 62 / 5 50 80 70 20
WACO 62 69 60 73 63 / 10 80 80 70 10
PARIS 58 76 59 69 61 / 5 20 50 80 30
DENTON 60 75 56 74 58 / 0 40 70 70 20
MCKINNEY 60 76 59 74 60 / 0 40 70 80 20
DALLAS 65 76 60 73 63 / 5 50 80 80 20
TERRELL 62 74 60 73 61 / 5 50 70 80 30
CORSICANA 64 73 61 75 63 / 5 60 70 80 30
TEMPLE 61 68 60 76 62 / 30 90 90 70 20
MINERAL WELLS 60 73 56 78 58 / 5 60 70 60 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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