461
FXUS64 KFWD 270605
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
105 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN (70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE) WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (5 PERCENT) FOR A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO OR
TWO IN EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RANGE FROM 1/2 TO
2 INCHES WITH HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING/
..WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL, SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. 00Z UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG
SUB-TROPICAL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA INTO THE GULF.
TROUGHING IN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET IS CURRENTLY NOTED OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA, AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE
STRONGEST FORCING AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
AND WEST OF OUR AREA, WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION
REMAINING IN THE TEXAS HILL COUNTY AND RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY.
NONETHELESS, AS THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS FROM THE WEST, STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS, SUPPORTING GENERAL
CLOUDINESS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY MORNING, RAIN WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE US-84 CORRIDOR, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THIS
AREA IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH WILL PREVAIL AGAINST DRY AIR
ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS, AND ALLOW SPOTTY SHOWERS (30 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE) TO DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS THE RED RIVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, WITH MOST SEEING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS OF RAINFALL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF US-84. HERE, SOME MAY SEE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH RANGE.
..THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE
MOVED OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND HEIGHT
FALLS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH TEXAS BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET IN RESPONSE TO THIS DISTURBANCE,
AIDING IN THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES WILL BE
ADVECTED AS FAR NORTH AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS (70 TO 90
PERCENT CHANCE) ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES, WITH TALL/NARROW CAPE REGIMES OWING TO NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC
ENVIRONMENTAL LAPSE RATES. MOST WILL SEE A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF
AN INCH OF RAIN, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
..FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BY MID-DAY FRIDAY, THE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED VORT
MAX WILL HAVE MOVED OUT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE VORT
MAX BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION BY FRIDAY
EVENING. LOCALIZED STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW- PRESSURE CENTER WILL SUPPORT A FAVORED REGION FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KILLEEN TO CANTON.
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
PRESSURE CENTER, YIELDING LOCALLY ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND A 0-1KM SRH IN THE 100 TO 200 M2/S2 RANGE. LAPSE RATES WILL BE
POOR IN THIS AREA, LIMITING OVERALL INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF
UPDRAFTS. ON THE CONTRARY, AMBIENT SURFACE VORTICITY WILL BE HIGH
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW, AND BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES MAY
BE AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KNOTS. AS SUCH, ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP IN EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO, IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST THIS THREAT WILL EXTEND. SHOULD THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BE EAST OF I-35 BY EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ANY LOW-END TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SHOULD THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE BE
ON THE SLOWER SIDE AND LAG IN THE TEXAS HILL COUNTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK MAY DEVELOP OWING TO A
LONGER PERIOD OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEFORE THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST. THESE DETAILS WILL BECOME
MORE CLEAR IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST AND IS BETTER SAMPLED BY THE OBSERVATION NETWORK ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
DARRAH
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 244 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025/
UPDATE:
MODELS REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
REMAINS ON TRACK IN TERMS OF RAINFALL TOTALS AND TIMING OF THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING). AFTER
THAT, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
STORMS AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RETURN OF
RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.
SANCHEZ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS TEXAS FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PER LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE.
MAIN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS THE EWX AND HGX AREAS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL
LOOK TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY MORNING
THEN INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS. CATEGORICAL
POPS APPEAR WARRANTED AREAWIDE WITH LATEST NBM PRECIP CHANCES
PEAKING IN THE 80-90 PERCENT RANGE. LATEST WPC QPF ALSO APPEARS
MORE REASONABLE THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK, RANGING FROM 1/4 INCH IN
OUR FAR NORTHWEST TO AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE IN OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK PLACES OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN A
MARGINAL RISK ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR, LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH
VERY POOR NEAR-MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA
LOOKS LOW.
OVER THE WEEKEND, A LARGE AND BROAD H5 TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS PER 00Z GUIDANCE, WITH STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP A CLASSIC WEST TEXAS DRYLINE. THIS
DRYLINE LOOKS TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN INTO EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, SO NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THAT
TIME. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, HOWEVER, CAP LOOKS
TO ERODE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS, HIGH MLCAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG, AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8.0 C/KM ALL INDICATE SOME
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TORNADO THREAT APPEARS QUITE LOW AS 0-3KM SRH LOOKS TO BE QUITE
WEAK AT LESS THAN 100 M2/S2. SPC HAS ACCORDINGLY INCLUDED OUR
EASTERN HALF IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE MID
70S SOUTH. THIS COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS WE WARM
BACK INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH AFTER THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, GULF MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY RETURN
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
DRYLINE SETUP AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. TIS THE SEASON!
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING A BROKEN DECK OF LOW-
VFR, MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 13Z
THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAFS, BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS POTENTIAL WITH
A BKN035 FM GROUP FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. AFTER 17Z, THERE
WILL BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT MAY IMPACT
TAF SITES. THE VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING, THOUGH A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOUTH OF I-20 (KACT) BETWEEN 18Z AND
03Z. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST
PERIOD, SO THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT
ISSUANCES.
DARRAH
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 60 70 63 84 67 / 70 90 20 0 10
WACO 61 70 63 83 66 / 80 90 20 0 5
PARIS 60 68 61 79 66 / 50 80 40 5 10
DENTON 59 70 60 86 63 / 60 80 20 0 10
MCKINNEY 60 69 61 82 65 / 60 90 20 0 10
DALLAS 61 71 63 84 68 / 70 90 20 0 10
TERRELL 61 70 62 82 66 / 70 100 30 0 10
CORSICANA 62 73 64 85 67 / 80 100 30 0 5
TEMPLE 60 73 63 85 66 / 90 90 10 0 5
MINERAL WELLS 59 73 60 91 62 / 60 70 10 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page