068
FXUS64 KFWD 270738
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
238 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN (70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE) WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (5 PERCENT) FOR A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO OR
TWO IN EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RANGE FROM 1/2 TO
2 INCHES WITH HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 105 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025/
/THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING/
..WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL, SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. 00Z UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG
SUB-TROPICAL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA INTO THE GULF.
TROUGHING IN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET IS CURRENTLY NOTED OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA, AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE
STRONGEST FORCING AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
AND WEST OF OUR AREA, WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION
REMAINING IN THE TEXAS HILL COUNTY AND RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY.
NONETHELESS, AS THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS FROM THE WEST, STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS, SUPPORTING GENERAL
CLOUDINESS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY MORNING, RAIN WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE US-84 CORRIDOR, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THIS
AREA IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH WILL PREVAIL AGAINST DRY AIR
ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS, AND ALLOW SPOTTY SHOWERS (30 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE) TO DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS THE RED RIVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, WITH MOST SEEING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS OF RAINFALL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF US-84. HERE, SOME MAY SEE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH RANGE.
..THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE
MOVED OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND HEIGHT
FALLS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH TEXAS BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET IN RESPONSE TO THIS DISTURBANCE,
AIDING IN THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES WILL BE
ADVECTED AS FAR NORTH AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS (70 TO 90
PERCENT CHANCE) ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES, WITH TALL/NARROW CAPE REGIMES OWING TO NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC
ENVIRONMENTAL LAPSE RATES. MOST WILL SEE A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF
AN INCH OF RAIN, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
..FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BY MID-DAY FRIDAY, THE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED VORT
MAX WILL HAVE MOVED OUT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE VORT
MAX BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION BY FRIDAY
EVENING. LOCALIZED STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW- PRESSURE CENTER WILL SUPPORT A FAVORED REGION FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KILLEEN TO CANTON.
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
PRESSURE CENTER, YIELDING LOCALLY ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND A 0-1KM SRH IN THE 100 TO 200 M2/S2 RANGE. LAPSE RATES WILL BE
POOR IN THIS AREA, LIMITING OVERALL INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF
UPDRAFTS. ON THE CONTRARY, AMBIENT SURFACE VORTICITY WILL BE HIGH
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW, AND BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES MAY
BE AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KNOTS. AS SUCH, ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP IN EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO, IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST THIS THREAT WILL EXTEND. SHOULD THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BE EAST OF I-35 BY EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ANY LOW-END TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SHOULD THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE BE
ON THE SLOWER SIDE AND LAG IN THE TEXAS HILL COUNTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK MAY DEVELOP OWING TO A
LONGER PERIOD OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEFORE THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST. THESE DETAILS WILL BECOME
MORE CLEAR IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST AND IS BETTER SAMPLED BY THE OBSERVATION NETWORK ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
DARRAH
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON
FRIDAY EVENING WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EAST OF I-35.
SOME PATCHY FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL, NEAR-ZERO DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS, BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY KEEP FOG
FORMATION MINIMAL. SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM AND DRY DAY THROUGHOUT
THE REGION AS A DRYLINE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS I-35 BY LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETREATING. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S EAST OF HIGHWAY 281, BUT BE MUCH HOTTER IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S FOR LOCATIONS TO THE WEST WHICH WILL BE BEHIND THE
DRYLINE LONGER. AS THE DRYLINE SHIFTS BACK INTO WEST TEXAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
IT DUE TO A PASSING H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. MODELS WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE SUCH AS THE GFS DEVELOPS THIS CONVECTION WHILE GUIDANCE
WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE LIKE THE ECMWF KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED
AT BEST. FOR NOW, DO NOT HAVE POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL BUT THEY
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN THE FUTURE.
ON SUNDAY, A DEEPER TROUGH AXIS WITH AN ASSOCIATED 70 KT H5 JET
STREAK WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO GIVE A STRONG EASTWARD PUSH TO THE DRYLINE
WITH IT PASSING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
OCCURS, A STOUT COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT
OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS BY SUNDAY EVENING AND REACH CENTRAL
TEXAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DEEP GULF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FORECAST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES LYING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE PASSING
JET STREAK, AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH NBM
POPS REMAIN ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ON SUNDAY, 00Z
GFS/ECMWF ARE NOTABLY HIGHER AND HAVE GONE ABOVE NBM POPS
ACCORDINGLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY IN OUR EAST SHOW
MLCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 60
KNOTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE ANY STORMS THAT
FORM WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. TORNADO THREAT APPEAR LOW AS OUR
CWA WILL RESIDE WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE LLJ ACROSS THE MIDWEST/MID-
SOUTH, AND THUS LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LESS THAN 100 M2/S2 OF 0-3KM SRH.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S. THIS BRIEF COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS A
BROAD, INTENSE UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS,
WITH A CLASSIC DRYLINE PATTERN SETTING UP OVER TEXAS. A STRONG CAP
SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP US WARM AND
DRY AT LEAST MOST OF THE DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, BUT
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY IN NORTH TEXAS. A SHORTWAVE EJECTING
INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY COULD ERODE THE
CAP MORE, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THEN - BUT GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON TIMING OF FEATURES THIS
FAR OUT. REGARDLESS, CONVECTION BOTH DAYS WILL HAVE AMPLE
CAPE/SHEAR TO WORK WITH, SO ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR COULD BECOME
STRONG OR SEVERE BOTH DAYS.
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/ISSUED 105 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025/
/THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING A BROKEN DECK OF LOW-
VFR, MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 13Z
THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAFS, BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS POTENTIAL WITH
A BKN035 FM GROUP FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. AFTER 17Z, THERE
WILL BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT MAY IMPACT
TAF SITES. THE VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING, THOUGH A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOUTH OF I-20 (KACT) BETWEEN 18Z AND
03Z. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST
PERIOD, SO THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT
ISSUANCES.
DARRAH
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 60 70 64 84 / 30 70 90 20 5
WACO 71 61 70 62 83 / 70 80 90 20 5
PARIS 78 60 68 62 79 / 30 50 80 50 10
DENTON 76 59 70 59 84 / 30 60 80 10 5
MCKINNEY 76 60 69 62 81 / 30 60 90 20 5
DALLAS 77 61 71 63 83 / 30 70 90 20 5
TERRELL 75 61 70 62 81 / 40 70 100 40 10
CORSICANA 74 62 73 64 83 / 50 80 100 40 10
TEMPLE 68 60 73 63 85 / 80 90 90 20 5
MINERAL WELLS 75 59 73 60 90 / 40 60 70 5 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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