252
FXUS64 KFWD 280007
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
707 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY, A FEW OF WHICH COULD
BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
IS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD DEEPER CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS, BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LOCALLY WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH LESS FREQUENT UPRIGHT SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
AS A RESULT, THIS WILL MOSTLY CONSIST OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR
MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ABOUT
0.25" OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO AS MUCH AS 2" IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE PRECIPITATION MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE COULD
ENHANCE TOTALS ON A LOCALIZED SCALE. THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS, AND WILL
RESULT IN A SOGGY FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR COMMUTE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION WILL STEADILY TAPER OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAYTIME, BUT LIGHT SHOWERS COULD PERSIST EAST OF I-35 WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS TO THE EAST. WHILE PREVIOUSLY IT APPEARED THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WITH MARGINAL
SEVERE HAZARDS IN EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, RECENT
TRENDS HAVE INDICATED A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHICH WILL BE QUITE
UNSUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A COUPLE OF
CELLS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. WHILE SOME SCATTERING OF CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY OCCUR NEAR
AND WEST OF I-35 TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD
FILL BACK IN QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS WE REMAIN IN SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WITHOUT ANY MOISTURE-SCOURING SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ACCOMPANY
THE UPPER TROUGH. AS A A RESULT, FOG DEVELOPMENT IS A POSSIBILITY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE
LOW DECK HAD PREVIOUSLY ERODED.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 124 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025/
UPDATE:
THE LATEST FORECAST CONTAINS TWO MAIN WEATHER UPDATES. THE FIRST
IS TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE SECOND IS A DECREASE MONDAY'S EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, ABOUT 20% OF THE MODELS NOW SHOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS
DUE TO A QUASI-DRYLINE SHARPENING OVERNIGHT AND PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. CONCURRENT WITH THE SHIFTING DRYLINE, A SLOW-MOVING
FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OUT OF OKLAHOMA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ATOP
OUR REGION. DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES TO
AROUND 8 C/KM, YIELDING BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KM OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. WITH ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT, WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN NORTH TEXAS. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, AN ISOLATED ELEVATED SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WE'LL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THIS NEW
DEVELOPMENT AND MAKE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IF NECESSARY.
REGARDING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, THE FRONT IS NOW
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN THE MID 60S IN NORTH TEXAS
TO MID 70S IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
HERNANDEZ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON
FRIDAY EVENING WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EAST OF I-35.
SOME PATCHY FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL, NEAR-ZERO DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS, BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY KEEP FOG
FORMATION MINIMAL. SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM AND DRY DAY THROUGHOUT
THE REGION AS A DRYLINE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS I-35 BY LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETREATING. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S EAST OF HIGHWAY 281, BUT BE MUCH HOTTER IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S FOR LOCATIONS TO THE WEST WHICH WILL BE BEHIND THE
DRYLINE LONGER. AS THE DRYLINE SHIFTS BACK INTO WEST TEXAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
IT DUE TO A PASSING H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. MODELS WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE SUCH AS THE GFS DEVELOPS THIS CONVECTION WHILE GUIDANCE
WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE LIKE THE ECMWF KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED
AT BEST. FOR NOW, DO NOT HAVE POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL BUT THEY
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN THE FUTURE.
ON SUNDAY, A DEEPER TROUGH AXIS WITH AN ASSOCIATED 70 KT H5 JET
STREAK WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO GIVE A STRONG EASTWARD PUSH TO THE DRYLINE
WITH IT PASSING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
OCCURS, A STOUT COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT
OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS BY SUNDAY EVENING AND REACH CENTRAL
TEXAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DEEP GULF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FORECAST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES LYING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE PASSING
JET STREAK, AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH NBM
POPS REMAIN ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ON SUNDAY, 00Z
GFS/ECMWF ARE NOTABLY HIGHER AND HAVE GONE ABOVE NBM POPS
ACCORDINGLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY IN OUR EAST SHOW
MLCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 60
KNOTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE ANY STORMS THAT
FORM WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. TORNADO THREAT APPEAR LOW AS OUR
CWA WILL RESIDE WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE LLJ ACROSS THE MIDWEST/MID-
SOUTH, AND THUS LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LESS THAN 100 M2/S2 OF 0-3KM SRH.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S. THIS BRIEF COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS A
BROAD, INTENSE UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS,
WITH A CLASSIC DRYLINE PATTERN SETTING UP OVER TEXAS. A STRONG CAP
SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP US WARM AND
DRY AT LEAST MOST OF THE DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, BUT
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY IN NORTH TEXAS. A SHORTWAVE EJECTING
INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY COULD ERODE THE
CAP MORE, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THEN - BUT GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON TIMING OF FEATURES THIS
FAR OUT. REGARDLESS, CONVECTION BOTH DAYS WILL HAVE AMPLE
CAPE/SHEAR TO WORK WITH, SO ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR COULD BECOME
STRONG OR SEVERE BOTH DAYS.
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
MVFR STRATUS HAS OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES AS OF 00Z, WITH FURTHER
DEGRADATION TO IFR EXPECTED TONIGHT. AN INITIAL SHIELD OF LIGHT
RAIN IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO DFW AREA AIRPORTS, WITH MORE
MODERATE RAIN AND SHOWERY PRECIP EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY, OCCURRENCES OF THUNDER
SHOULD BE QUITE SCARCE WITH A VERY LOW (<10%) PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE IN VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES, AND THEREFORE NO TS WILL
BE INCLUDED. INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z
TOMORROW BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY EXITS TO THE EAST. IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR AND THEN VFR SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE LOW
CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG REDEVELOPS FRIDAY EVENING. A SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 60 70 62 86 67 / 90 80 20 5 20
WACO 59 72 61 84 66 / 90 80 20 5 10
PARIS 58 67 60 80 66 / 80 90 40 10 20
DENTON 57 70 59 85 63 / 80 80 10 5 20
MCKINNEY 59 68 60 83 65 / 80 90 20 5 20
DALLAS 60 72 62 85 67 / 90 80 20 5 20
TERRELL 60 69 61 84 66 / 90 90 30 10 20
CORSICANA 61 72 64 86 68 / 90 80 30 5 10
TEMPLE 59 74 61 86 66 / 90 80 20 5 5
MINERAL WELLS 57 75 59 92 63 / 60 60 5 5 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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