882
FXUS64 KFWD 280538
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1238 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY, A FEW OF WHICH COULD
BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN UPPER LOW WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 40 KT
LOW LEVEL JET, THOUGH MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ALL CONVECTION
SUB-SEVERE. DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE GULF COAST
REGION WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. OUR BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WITHIN A DEEP
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FETCH EXTENDING OUT INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF.
WARM, MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL OTHERWISE KEEP
TONIGHT'S TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, BUT WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL LEAN TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY'S HIGHS DUE TO
THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. THE LACK OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE
MAY ALSO LEAD TO FOG FORMATION FRIDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY IF
CLOUDS ERODE QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP
PUSH A DRYLINE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES, WHICH SHOULD BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S SATURDAY AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. AN ELEVATED GRASS FIRE THREAT WILL LIKELY
ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE WESTERN-MOST ROW OF COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
30
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 124 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025/
UPDATE:
THE LATEST FORECAST CONTAINS TWO MAIN WEATHER UPDATES. THE FIRST
IS TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE SECOND IS A DECREASE MONDAY'S EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, ABOUT 20% OF THE MODELS NOW SHOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS
DUE TO A QUASI-DRYLINE SHARPENING OVERNIGHT AND PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. CONCURRENT WITH THE SHIFTING DRYLINE, A SLOW-MOVING
FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OUT OF OKLAHOMA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ATOP
OUR REGION. DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES TO
AROUND 8 C/KM, YIELDING BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KM OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. WITH ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT, WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN NORTH TEXAS. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, AN ISOLATED ELEVATED SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WE'LL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THIS NEW
DEVELOPMENT AND MAKE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IF NECESSARY.
REGARDING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, THE FRONT IS NOW
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN THE MID 60S IN NORTH TEXAS
TO MID 70S IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
HERNANDEZ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON
FRIDAY EVENING WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EAST OF I-35.
SOME PATCHY FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL, NEAR-ZERO DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS, BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY KEEP FOG
FORMATION MINIMAL. SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM AND DRY DAY THROUGHOUT
THE REGION AS A DRYLINE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS I-35 BY LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETREATING. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S EAST OF HIGHWAY 281, BUT BE MUCH HOTTER IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S FOR LOCATIONS TO THE WEST WHICH WILL BE BEHIND THE
DRYLINE LONGER. AS THE DRYLINE SHIFTS BACK INTO WEST TEXAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
IT DUE TO A PASSING H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. MODELS WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE SUCH AS THE GFS DEVELOPS THIS CONVECTION WHILE GUIDANCE
WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE LIKE THE ECMWF KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED
AT BEST. FOR NOW, DO NOT HAVE POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL BUT THEY
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN THE FUTURE.
ON SUNDAY, A DEEPER TROUGH AXIS WITH AN ASSOCIATED 70 KT H5 JET
STREAK WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO GIVE A STRONG EASTWARD PUSH TO THE DRYLINE
WITH IT PASSING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
OCCURS, A STOUT COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT
OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS BY SUNDAY EVENING AND REACH CENTRAL
TEXAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DEEP GULF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FORECAST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES LYING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE PASSING
JET STREAK, AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH NBM
POPS REMAIN ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ON SUNDAY, 00Z
GFS/ECMWF ARE NOTABLY HIGHER AND HAVE GONE ABOVE NBM POPS
ACCORDINGLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY IN OUR EAST SHOW
MLCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 60
KNOTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE ANY STORMS THAT
FORM WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. TORNADO THREAT APPEAR LOW AS OUR
CWA WILL RESIDE WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE LLJ ACROSS THE MIDWEST/MID-
SOUTH, AND THUS LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LESS THAN 100 M2/S2 OF 0-3KM SRH.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S. THIS BRIEF COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS A
BROAD, INTENSE UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS,
WITH A CLASSIC DRYLINE PATTERN SETTING UP OVER TEXAS. A STRONG CAP
SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP US WARM AND
DRY AT LEAST MOST OF THE DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, BUT
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY IN NORTH TEXAS. A SHORTWAVE EJECTING
INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY COULD ERODE THE
CAP MORE, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THEN - BUT GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON TIMING OF FEATURES THIS
FAR OUT. REGARDLESS, CONVECTION BOTH DAYS WILL HAVE AMPLE
CAPE/SHEAR TO WORK WITH, SO ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR COULD BECOME
STRONG OR SEVERE BOTH DAYS.
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR OVERNIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LOW THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIPITATION EXITING BY 00Z FRIDAY EVENING. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CIGS MAY IMPROVE FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MAY SIMULTANEOUSLY OCCUR AS
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS.
30
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 63 84 67 86 51 / 20 5 20 20 10
WACO 62 84 66 85 56 / 20 5 10 10 10
PARIS 60 81 66 81 49 / 40 10 20 30 30
DENTON 58 83 63 84 46 / 10 5 20 20 10
MCKINNEY 61 81 65 83 48 / 20 5 20 20 10
DALLAS 62 84 67 85 53 / 20 5 20 20 10
TERRELL 63 82 66 84 51 / 40 5 20 20 20
CORSICANA 64 84 68 86 56 / 40 5 10 20 20
TEMPLE 63 84 66 87 56 / 10 0 5 5 10
MINERAL WELLS 59 91 63 88 47 / 5 5 20 10 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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