899
FXUS64 KFWD 280831
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
331 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED (30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE) STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1238 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025/
/THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN UPPER LOW WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 40 KT
LOW LEVEL JET, THOUGH MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ALL CONVECTION
SUB-SEVERE. DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE GULF COAST
REGION WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. OUR BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WITHIN A DEEP
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FETCH EXTENDING OUT INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF.
WARM, MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL OTHERWISE KEEP
TONIGHT'S TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, BUT WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL LEAN TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY'S HIGHS DUE TO
THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. THE LACK OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE
MAY ALSO LEAD TO FOG FORMATION FRIDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY IF
CLOUDS ERODE QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP
PUSH A DRYLINE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES, WHICH SHOULD BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S SATURDAY AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. AN ELEVATED GRASS FIRE THREAT WILL LIKELY
ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE WESTERN-MOST ROW OF COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
30
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
..SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING TWO
CHANCES FOR STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL BE
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS.
A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID-
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
LOW-PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WHILE THE COLD
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH NORTH TEXAS UNTIL SUNDAY, A DRY
LINE WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. DEW POINTS ON THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LARGELY BE IN THE MID 60S, WITH DEW POINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE DRY LINE. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME, AS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL
BE IN PLACE AND PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WELL TO THE
NORTH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NONETHELESS, AS A JET STREAK EJECTS
OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ON SATURDAY, FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED STORMS (20 TO 30% CHANCE) TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE.
THE TIMING OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR A DRYLINE
SETUP, AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE AROUND OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS OPPOSED TO PEAK HEATING. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE
OVERNIGHT ARRIVAL OF STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH PVA FROM AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET.
THE SURFACE DRYLINE'S DIURNAL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST WILL ALSO BE
COUNTERED BY STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS, SEEMINGLY ATTRIBUTED TO SUBSIDENCE VIA THE DRY
CONVEYER BELT OF THE MATURE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL MITIGATE NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN DIFFUSION OF THE SURFACE
MOISTURE GRADIENT, AND ALLOW MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE
TO PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, THERE WILL BE
AMPLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WILL YIELD A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE
ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS SUCH, ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW, AS THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED
ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION.
..SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH, POTENTIALLY REACHING NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS COLD FRONT, THE DRY LINE WILL
MIX FROM THE HILL COUNTRY EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT CAPPING WILL ERODE BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
(40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE) ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35, AS CURRENT
UNCERTAINTIES IN COLD FRONT TIMING WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
WHETHER THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THROUGH THIS AREA OR NOT BEFORE CI.
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE, SURFACE DEW
POINTS WILL BE NEAR 70 DEGREES. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN TEXAS (CAPE WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG).
FURTHERMORE, STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT, WITH BULK
SHEAR MAGNITUDES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE MORE
THAN CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE MORE CURVED AND COLD FRONT
ORIENTATION WILL BE RELATIVELY MORE ORTHOGONAL TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS. A COUPLE DISCRETE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD CONVECTION INITIATE
ALONG THE DRYLINE BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THIS
REGION, HODOGRAPHS WILL BE MORE STRAIGHT THAN THEIR COUNTERPARTS
TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH, THE TORNADO THREAT WITH DRYLINE STORMS
IN CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH TOWARDS THE
GULF.
MONDAY MAY VERY WELL BE THE BEST WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S. NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH MONDAY MORNING SHOULD WEAKEN TO 5
TO 10 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
..TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (40 TO 50%) TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS. BECAUSE THE TIMING OF THESE STORMS LOOKS TO BE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THOUGH THE AREA WILL BE POST COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, DIURNAL
HEATING WILL BE MORE ROBUST IN THE DRIER AIRMASS, ALLOWING HIGHS
TO STILL RISE INTO THE 80S. BY THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK, RIDGING
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 80S.
DARRAH
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1238 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025/
/06Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR OVERNIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LOW THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIPITATION EXITING BY 00Z FRIDAY EVENING. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CIGS MAY IMPROVE FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MAY SIMULTANEOUSLY OCCUR AS
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS.
30
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 70 63 84 67 84 / 90 20 5 20 30
WACO 70 62 84 66 84 / 90 20 5 10 20
PARIS 68 60 81 65 80 / 90 40 10 20 40
DENTON 69 58 83 64 82 / 90 10 5 20 20
MCKINNEY 68 61 81 66 82 / 90 20 5 20 30
DALLAS 70 62 84 67 85 / 90 20 5 20 30
TERRELL 68 63 82 66 82 / 80 40 5 20 30
CORSICANA 70 64 84 68 84 / 90 40 5 10 30
TEMPLE 72 63 84 66 85 / 90 10 0 10 20
MINERAL WELLS 74 59 91 64 86 / 70 5 5 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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