827
FXUS64 KFWD 281646
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1146 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME TO AN END LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EAST
OF I-35.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL TX AT THIS HOUR.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY NOW ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD, RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE AND WE'LL CONTEND
WITH LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
ON SATURDAY, DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL COMMENCE AFTER
SUNRISE AND LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE A BIT WITH A
DRYLINE PUSHING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. A STRONGER
MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROMOTE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE DRYLINE. WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT, TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND UPWARD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S BEHIND THE
DRYLINE ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. AFTERNOON RH WILL DROP TO
AROUND 20% WEST OF THE DRYLINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S
AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A SMALL AREA WHERE THE GRASS
FIRE THREAT WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A 70 KT MID LEVEL JET AND A 110 KT
UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WILL FEATURE A MOIST, BUT CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER
BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IT'S A LITTLE ATYPICAL FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER SETUP IN NORTH TEXAS AS THE DRYLINE SHOULDN'T
RETREAT MUCH DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD
THE PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ELEVATED MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS ONLY
HAVING TO OVERCOME MINIMAL INHIBITION TO CONVECT. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR 2500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITH NEARLY
60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. WITH A DRYLINE ORIENTED MAINLY
NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA, POCKETS OF STRONG MESOSCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER DARK ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL WHETHER OR NOT THIS FORCING (AIDED BY
WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING) WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO WORK AGAINST ANY
CAPPING. EVEN ELEVATED PARCELS WILL HAVE SOME CAP TO ERODE. IF
THIS DOES HAPPEN THOUGH, FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL DISCRETE ELEVATED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WHILE THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
THIS SCENARIO, FEATURING MULTIPLE 2" TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL ANALOGS
GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THE SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
PRESENT IN MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS CLOSELY AS IT ONCE AGAIN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LIMITED
AREA, BUT HIGH IMPACT EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. WE'LL HAVE 20-30%
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY ALONG A GOLDTHWAITE TO WACO TO
CANTON LINE AND AREAS NORTH OF THERE.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025/
/SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
..SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING TWO
CHANCES FOR STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL BE
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS.
A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID-
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
LOW-PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WHILE THE COLD
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH NORTH TEXAS UNTIL SUNDAY, A DRY
LINE WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. DEW POINTS ON THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LARGELY BE IN THE MID 60S, WITH DEW POINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE DRY LINE. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME, AS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL
BE IN PLACE AND PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WELL TO THE
NORTH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NONETHELESS, AS A JET STREAK EJECTS
OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ON SATURDAY, FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED STORMS (20 TO 30% CHANCE) TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE.
THE TIMING OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR A DRYLINE
SETUP, AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE AROUND OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS OPPOSED TO PEAK HEATING. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE
OVERNIGHT ARRIVAL OF STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH PVA FROM AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET.
THE SURFACE DRYLINE'S DIURNAL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST WILL ALSO BE
COUNTERED BY STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS, SEEMINGLY ATTRIBUTED TO SUBSIDENCE VIA THE DRY
CONVEYER BELT OF THE MATURE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL MITIGATE NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN DIFFUSION OF THE SURFACE
MOISTURE GRADIENT, AND ALLOW MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE
TO PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, THERE WILL BE
AMPLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WILL YIELD A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE
ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS SUCH, ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW, AS THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED
ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION.
..SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH, POTENTIALLY REACHING NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS COLD FRONT, THE DRY LINE WILL
MIX FROM THE HILL COUNTRY EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT CAPPING WILL ERODE BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
(40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE) ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35, AS CURRENT
UNCERTAINTIES IN COLD FRONT TIMING WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
WHETHER THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THROUGH THIS AREA OR NOT BEFORE CI.
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE, SURFACE DEW
POINTS WILL BE NEAR 70 DEGREES. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN TEXAS (CAPE WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG).
FURTHERMORE, STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT, WITH BULK
SHEAR MAGNITUDES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE MORE
THAN CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE MORE CURVED AND COLD FRONT
ORIENTATION WILL BE RELATIVELY MORE ORTHOGONAL TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS. A COUPLE DISCRETE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD CONVECTION INITIATE
ALONG THE DRYLINE BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THIS
REGION, HODOGRAPHS WILL BE MORE STRAIGHT THAN THEIR COUNTERPARTS
TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH, THE TORNADO THREAT WITH DRYLINE STORMS
IN CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH TOWARDS THE
GULF.
MONDAY MAY VERY WELL BE THE BEST WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S. NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH MONDAY MORNING SHOULD WEAKEN TO 5
TO 10 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
..TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (40 TO 50%) TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS. BECAUSE THE TIMING OF THESE STORMS LOOKS TO BE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THOUGH THE AREA WILL BE POST COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, DIURNAL
HEATING WILL BE MORE ROBUST IN THE DRIER AIRMASS, ALLOWING HIGHS
TO STILL RISE INTO THE 80S. BY THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK, RIDGING
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 80S.
DARRAH
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
POCKETS OF VFR HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WON'T REALLY GET SCOURED OUT. WHILE THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS, WE'LL GENERALLY KEEP THINGS A LITTLE MORE
OPTIMISTIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MONITOR CIG/VIS TRENDS
AS THEY DEVELOP. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP, BUT THIS MAY BE CONFINED TO OUTLYING AREAS GIVEN A
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MORNING LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 70 61 83 67 84 / 90 5 0 30 30
WACO 68 61 82 66 84 / 90 5 0 20 20
PARIS 69 61 78 65 80 / 90 40 5 30 40
DENTON 70 58 83 64 82 / 90 5 0 20 20
MCKINNEY 69 60 80 65 82 / 90 10 0 30 30
DALLAS 70 62 82 67 85 / 90 10 0 30 30
TERRELL 68 60 79 66 82 / 80 20 0 30 30
CORSICANA 68 63 80 68 84 / 80 20 0 20 30
TEMPLE 69 60 82 65 85 / 90 5 0 10 20
MINERAL WELLS 73 58 87 63 86 / 70 0 5 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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