167
FXUS64 KFWD 281908
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
208 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY MAINLY EAST
OF I-35.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1146 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025/
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL TX AT THIS HOUR.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY NOW ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD, RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE AND WE'LL CONTEND
WITH LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
ON SATURDAY, DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL COMMENCE AFTER
SUNRISE AND LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE A BIT WITH A
DRYLINE PUSHING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. A STRONGER
MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROMOTE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE DRYLINE. WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT, TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND UPWARD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S BEHIND THE
DRYLINE ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. AFTERNOON RH WILL DROP TO
AROUND 20% WEST OF THE DRYLINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S
AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A SMALL AREA WHERE THE GRASS
FIRE THREAT WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A 70 KT MID LEVEL JET AND A 110 KT
UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WILL FEATURE A MOIST, BUT CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER
BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IT'S A LITTLE ATYPICAL FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER SETUP IN NORTH TEXAS AS THE DRYLINE SHOULDN'T
RETREAT MUCH DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD
THE PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ELEVATED MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS ONLY
HAVING TO OVERCOME MINIMAL INHIBITION TO CONVECT. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR 2500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITH NEARLY
60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. WITH A DRYLINE ORIENTED MAINLY
NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA, POCKETS OF STRONG MESOSCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER DARK ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL WHETHER OR NOT THIS FORCING (AIDED BY
WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING) WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO WORK AGAINST ANY
CAPPING. EVEN ELEVATED PARCELS WILL HAVE SOME CAP TO ERODE. IF
THIS DOES HAPPEN THOUGH, FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL DISCRETE ELEVATED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WHILE THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
THIS SCENARIO, FEATURING MULTIPLE 2" TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL ANALOGS
GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THE SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
PRESENT IN MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS CLOSELY AS IT ONCE AGAIN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LIMITED
AREA, BUT HIGH IMPACT EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. WE'LL HAVE 20-30%
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY ALONG A GOLDTHWAITE TO WACO TO
CANTON LINE AND AREAS NORTH OF THERE.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT, THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SUNDAY'S WEATHER
AS A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A WARM, MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD. THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
REMAIN DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THIS TIME, BUT FOCUSED
ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND WOULD POSE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
RISK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT, DRIER
AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN
PLACE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, BUT AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN
WILL QUICKLY ALLOW MOISTURE TO START STREAMING NORTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS DURING THIS TIME AND SEVERAL DISTINCT SHORTWAVES
WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STORM
CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD INTO A DEEP
SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS. A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS. STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL A LITTLE LESS
CERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
DUNN
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1146 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025/
/18Z TAFS/
POCKETS OF VFR HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WON'T REALLY GET SCOURED OUT. WHILE THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS, WE'LL GENERALLY KEEP THINGS A LITTLE MORE
OPTIMISTIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MONITOR CIG/VIS TRENDS
AS THEY DEVELOP. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP, BUT THIS MAY BE CONFINED TO OUTLYING AREAS GIVEN A
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MORNING LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 70 61 83 67 83 / 90 5 0 30 20
WACO 68 61 82 66 83 / 90 5 0 20 10
PARIS 69 61 78 65 79 / 90 40 5 30 30
DENTON 70 58 83 64 83 / 90 5 0 20 10
MCKINNEY 69 60 80 65 81 / 90 10 0 30 20
DALLAS 70 62 82 67 84 / 90 10 0 30 20
TERRELL 68 60 79 66 81 / 80 20 0 30 20
CORSICANA 68 63 80 68 82 / 80 20 0 20 20
TEMPLE 69 60 82 65 84 / 90 5 0 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 73 58 87 63 87 / 70 0 5 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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