454
FXUS64 KFWD 290012
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
712 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY MAINLY EAST
OF I-35.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS IS MAKING ITS EASTWARD DEPARTURE, WITH THE LAST BAND OF
SHOWERS SHIFTING INTO EAST TEXAS AS OF 7PM. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS NOT EVEN MEASURABLE AT PRESENT, AND ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS
ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS AT
MOST BEFORE ALL PRECIPITATION PIVOTS OUT OF THE CWA LATER THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT, LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS POCKETS OF FOG WILL
BEGIN TO FILL IN, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE SCATTERED OUT
WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE
RETAINED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST, ALTHOUGH
THE PLACEMENT IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN AND CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE IS LOW OVERALL. OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA TO BEGIN SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE STEADY CLEARING
ALLOWS HIGHS TO REACH THE MID AND UPPER 80S. WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODEST DYNAMIC ASCENT, WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW. RECENT SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL
SUPPORTS A LOW PROBABILITY (10-20%) OF THIS OCCURRING, BUT IF
CELLS CAN INITIATE AND HARNESS THE LARGE MUCAPE THEN SEVERE HAIL
WOULD BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
-STALLEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL TX AT THIS HOUR.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY NOW ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD, RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE AND WE'LL CONTEND
WITH LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
ON SATURDAY, DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL COMMENCE AFTER
SUNRISE AND LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE A BIT WITH A
DRYLINE PUSHING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. A STRONGER
MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROMOTE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE DRYLINE. WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT, TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND UPWARD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S BEHIND THE
DRYLINE ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. AFTERNOON RH WILL DROP TO
AROUND 20% WEST OF THE DRYLINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S
AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A SMALL AREA WHERE THE GRASS
FIRE THREAT WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A 70 KT MID LEVEL JET AND A 110 KT
UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WILL FEATURE A MOIST, BUT CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER
BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IT'S A LITTLE ATYPICAL FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER SETUP IN NORTH TEXAS AS THE DRYLINE SHOULDN'T
RETREAT MUCH DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD
THE PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ELEVATED MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS ONLY
HAVING TO OVERCOME MINIMAL INHIBITION TO CONVECT. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR 2500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITH NEARLY
60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. WITH A DRYLINE ORIENTED MAINLY
NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA, POCKETS OF STRONG MESOSCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER DARK ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL WHETHER OR NOT THIS FORCING (AIDED BY
WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING) WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO WORK AGAINST ANY
CAPPING. EVEN ELEVATED PARCELS WILL HAVE SOME CAP TO ERODE. IF
THIS DOES HAPPEN THOUGH, FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL DISCRETE ELEVATED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WHILE THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
THIS SCENARIO, FEATURING MULTIPLE 2" TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL ANALOGS
GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THE SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
PRESENT IN MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS CLOSELY AS IT ONCE AGAIN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LIMITED
AREA, BUT HIGH IMPACT EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. WE'LL HAVE 20-30%
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY ALONG A GOLDTHWAITE TO WACO TO
CANTON LINE AND AREAS NORTH OF THERE.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 208 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025/
/SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT, THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SUNDAY'S WEATHER
AS A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A WARM, MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD. THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
REMAIN DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THIS TIME, BUT FOCUSED
ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND WOULD POSE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
RISK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT, DRIER
AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN
PLACE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, BUT AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN
WILL QUICKLY ALLOW MOISTURE TO START STREAMING NORTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS DURING THIS TIME AND SEVERAL DISTINCT SHORTWAVES
WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STORM
CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD INTO A DEEP
SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS. A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS. STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL A LITTLE LESS
CERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
DUNN
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
LOW CIGS AT BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR HEIGHTS HAVE SCATTERED OUT EARLY
THIS EVENING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP AFTER ~06Z, BUT THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AIRPORTS AND HAS NOT BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. LOW CIGS SHOULD SCATTER TO VFR NO LATER THAN MIDDAY
SATURDAY WITH VFR AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A FEW DAYTIME GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE
CAN BE EXPECTED.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 61 85 67 83 51 / 0 0 30 20 10
WACO 61 83 66 83 55 / 0 0 20 10 10
PARIS 61 79 65 79 49 / 20 0 30 30 30
DENTON 58 84 64 83 46 / 0 0 30 10 10
MCKINNEY 60 81 65 81 49 / 5 0 30 20 20
DALLAS 62 84 66 84 53 / 0 0 30 20 20
TERRELL 60 81 66 81 51 / 5 0 30 20 20
CORSICANA 63 83 67 82 55 / 5 0 20 20 20
TEMPLE 60 85 66 84 55 / 0 0 20 10 5
MINERAL WELLS 58 91 62 87 48 / 0 0 20 10 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page