303
FXUS64 KFWD 290531
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1231 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY MAINLY EAST
OF I-35.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH SUNDAY/
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING ALOFT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 18 HOURS AS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN AN
EXITING SHORTWAVE OVER LOUISIANA AND THE NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE IS LEADING TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUD FORMATION AS
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPROACH ZERO. DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY DUE TO
THE EQUAL PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS, BUT CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT ON A LOCALIZED BASIS. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
MID SATURDAY MORNING AS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS OUT AHEAD OF THE
ENCROACHING SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST. WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL
MAKE FOR AN OVERALL NICE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S
IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL ACTUALLY ENTER THE WESTERN-MOST
COUNTIES, PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281, WHERE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE THREAT WILL
EXIST IN THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS: THE
DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO MIX EAST TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR
SATURDAY EVENING, AROUND THE TIME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION, HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY SHUT OFF ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS. WITH THAT SAID, A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP AT OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT, WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE THE 925MB LEVEL. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS WILL MORE THAN SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND THE ASSOCIATED 2000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE, ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KT.
NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED
COVERAGE, BUT THOSE THAT DO WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXPERIENCE
LARGE HAIL. RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
KEY IN ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION STILL OCCURRING SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE DRYLINE, ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SHERMAN TO THE DFW METROPLEX
TO THE COLORADO RIVER. STORMS WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND
MIDNIGHT, AND PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY WOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AROUND MID
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MIXES OUT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-30 WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST. THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SURFACE-BASED, PRESENTING
BOTH A HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THREAT WHILE SPREADING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY
EXITING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
30
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 208 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025/
/SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT, THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SUNDAY'S WEATHER
AS A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A WARM, MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD. THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
REMAIN DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THIS TIME, BUT FOCUSED
ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND WOULD POSE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
RISK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT, DRIER
AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN
PLACE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, BUT AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN
WILL QUICKLY ALLOW MOISTURE TO START STREAMING NORTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS DURING THIS TIME AND SEVERAL DISTINCT SHORTWAVES
WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STORM
CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD INTO A DEEP
SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS. A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS. STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL A LITTLE LESS
CERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
DUNN
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE 09-13Z DUE TO BR. A
GAP IN THE CLOUDS RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM GKY TO DFW, BUT SHOULD
FILL IN IN THE NEXT HOUR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AREA-WIDE
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT, ALONG WITH
GUSTS 25-30 KT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT LOCAL SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY REQUIRE
VCTS IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.
30
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 67 84 51 69 52 / 20 20 10 5 0
WACO 66 84 55 72 51 / 10 20 10 0 0
PARIS 65 79 49 68 48 / 40 30 30 10 0
DENTON 64 84 46 69 47 / 20 10 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 65 81 49 68 49 / 30 20 20 5 0
DALLAS 67 84 53 71 52 / 20 20 20 5 0
TERRELL 66 81 51 69 50 / 20 30 20 5 0
CORSICANA 67 82 55 71 53 / 10 20 20 5 0
TEMPLE 66 85 55 74 52 / 10 20 5 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 62 87 48 71 47 / 20 10 5 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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