872
FXUS64 KFWD 291738
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1238 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY MAINLY EAST OF I-35. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
- BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES (30 TO 50
PERCENT) FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE GIVEN
WAY TO A WARM AND BREEZY SPRING AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE
LOW TO UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. ON TOP OF THIS, DEW POINTS WILL
BEGIN TO PLUMMET ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES
IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DUE TO THESE WARM, DRY,
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT, MAINLY OFF TO THE WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
OUR WEATHER WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE LATER THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE DRYLINE WILL
CONTINUE MIXING EAST LATE THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A MITIGATING FACTOR REGARDING
THE TOTAL EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THIS WILL LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS,
THERE IS STILL A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT A FEW ISOLATED, ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
DRYLINE AS IT PUSHES EAST. PLENTY OF MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG
COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS WILL
BE CONDUCIVE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, MAINLY
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
QUITE LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF SURFACE BASED STORM POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY IF THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE DRYLINE WILL BE WELL INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. ON TOP OF THIS, A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH
FROM OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION OVERHEAD. SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MAINLY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20. THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER. EXACT COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION
WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MORE LIKELY WITH THIS SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A LOW THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES AS WELL SHOULD ANY SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ALONG EITHER BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ALL STORMS WILL EXIT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA BEYOND SUNSET SUNDAY NIGHT.
REEVES
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 320 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025/
/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
..SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THIS WEEKEND'S STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS IN TANDEM WITH DRY NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING A CLEAR AND PLEASANT DAY TO THE REGION
ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT WARM OUT OF
THE 60S CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER. NIGHTTIME LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER 50S/UPPER 40S BOTH NIGHTS.
..TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. EMBEDDED IN STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, PERIODIC SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
EJECT OUT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGHOUT THIS UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION DETAILS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER MOST OF
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY (2000 TO 3500+ J/KG OF CAPE) POSSIBLE EACH EVENING.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH PERSISTENT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR MULTIPLE, POTENTIALLY DAILY CHANCES FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD THESE DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS MATERIALIZE, THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASING THREAT OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS
WELL. THOUGH THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG
THIS PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT GENERAL STORMINESS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
DARRAH
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...VCTS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT, MORNING MVFR CEILINGS.
VFR CEILINGS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING AS WELL. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. VCTS BETWEEN 04-09Z APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY, WITH A
LOW CHANCE OF TSRA JUST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE D10.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF HOUR
OR TWO OF VCTS BEFORE STORMS PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STORM CHANCES IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
REEVES
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 85 67 85 51 69 / 0 40 20 10 5
WACO 83 66 83 54 72 / 0 20 10 5 0
PARIS 80 65 80 49 67 / 0 40 30 40 10
DENTON 85 63 85 47 69 / 5 40 10 10 0
MCKINNEY 82 65 83 49 68 / 0 40 20 20 5
DALLAS 85 67 85 53 71 / 0 40 20 20 5
TERRELL 81 66 81 51 69 / 0 30 20 30 5
CORSICANA 83 68 81 55 71 / 0 20 20 30 5
TEMPLE 85 66 83 55 74 / 0 20 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 92 62 88 48 72 / 5 40 5 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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