649
FXUS64 KFWD 291911
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
211 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY MAINLY EAST OF I-35. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
- BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES (30 TO 50
PERCENT) FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1238 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025/
/THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE GIVEN
WAY TO A WARM AND BREEZY SPRING AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE
LOW TO UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. ON TOP OF THIS, DEW POINTS WILL
BEGIN TO PLUMMET ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES
IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DUE TO THESE WARM, DRY,
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT, MAINLY OFF TO THE WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
OUR WEATHER WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE LATER THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE DRYLINE WILL
CONTINUE MIXING EAST LATE THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A MITIGATING FACTOR REGARDING
THE TOTAL EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THIS WILL LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS,
THERE IS STILL A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT A FEW ISOLATED, ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
DRYLINE AS IT PUSHES EAST. PLENTY OF MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG
COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS WILL
BE CONDUCIVE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, MAINLY
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
QUITE LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF SURFACE BASED STORM POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY IF THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE DRYLINE WILL BE WELL INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. ON TOP OF THIS, A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH
FROM OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION OVERHEAD. SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MAINLY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20. THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER. EXACT COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION
WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MORE LIKELY WITH THIS SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A LOW THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES AS WELL SHOULD ANY SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ALONG EITHER BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ALL STORMS WILL EXIT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA BEYOND SUNSET SUNDAY NIGHT.
REEVES
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY FOLLOWING A
STORMY WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW/MID 70S. THIS COOL AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL SET UP AS BROAD,
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGHING ENVELOPS THE WESTERN CONUS STARTING ON
TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WARM AND BREEZY
WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. NEAR DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO
MAKE A RETURN TO THE ENTIRE REGION STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS POTENTIAL IS, THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS FAR AS EXACT
DETAILS GO. REGARDLESS, A PERIOD OF ACTIVE AND IMPACTFUL WEATHER
WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
REEVES
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1238 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025/
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...VCTS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT, MORNING MVFR CEILINGS.
VFR CEILINGS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING AS WELL. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. VCTS BETWEEN 04-09Z APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY, WITH A
LOW CHANCE OF TSRA JUST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE D10.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF HOUR
OR TWO OF VCTS BEFORE STORMS PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STORM CHANCES IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
REEVES
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 67 85 51 71 53 / 40 20 10 0 0
WACO 66 83 54 74 51 / 20 10 5 0 0
PARIS 65 80 49 69 49 / 40 30 40 5 0
DENTON 63 85 47 70 47 / 40 10 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 65 83 49 69 49 / 40 20 20 5 0
DALLAS 67 85 53 71 52 / 40 20 20 5 0
TERRELL 66 81 51 71 50 / 30 20 30 5 0
CORSICANA 68 81 55 72 53 / 20 20 30 5 0
TEMPLE 66 83 55 75 52 / 20 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 62 88 48 74 48 / 40 5 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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