619
FXUS64 KFWD 300527
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1227 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE NOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH
OF I-30, A FEW OF WHICH MAY ALSO BE SEVERE.
- BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES (30 TO 50
PERCENT) FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH MONDAY/
THE DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR TONIGHT'S THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK
ITS WAY EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, EVENTUALLY EXITING INTO LOUISIANA
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS AND THE DISSIPATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BRING A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THOUGH ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE SHUNTED EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-30 WHERE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT. CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS, EXITING OUR SOUTHEAST-MOST
COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL ENTER SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH MONDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
30
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/TUESDAY ONWARD/
A WARMING TREND WILL QUICKLY TAKE PLACE STARTING TUESDAY AS
LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN INTENSE
LEE-CYCLONE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL
HELP DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT AS THE FIRST IN WHAT WILL BE A
STRING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS,
BEGINNING WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE
PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT PACIFIC FRONT WILL KICK OFF ONE
BATCH OF CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE FRONT
WILL STALL, PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AROUND THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.
A CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE LOW WILL ADVANCE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD,
PROVIDING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, HEAVY RAIN
WILL BECOME A CONCERN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY MEANDERING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE
MUCH NEEDED RAIN THAT WILL BE RECEIVED, BUT THERE WILL MOST LIKELY
BE MORE SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH INSTANCES OF FLOODING THAT WILL
HAVE TO BE ENDURED. WHATEVER THE CASE, A BREAK IN THE WEATHER
APPEARS LIKELY SOMEWHERE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
LOW WEAKENS AND UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTS TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CONUS.
30
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE EASTERN METROPLEX AND SHOULD
MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE DFW AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED STORMS MAY OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP BEHIND
THE MAIN LINE, SO WILL MAINTAIN VCTS THROUGH 09Z. A SECOND BATCH
OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT, SO
WILL NEED TO KEEP A TEMPO FOR TS AT KACT FROM NOW THROUGH 10Z. A
LULL IN CONVECTION WILL OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL STORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING, WHICH MAY IMPACT THE EASTERN DFW TRACON AREA. WILL HENCE
KEEP VCTS IN THE METROPLEX FROM 30/21Z THROUGH 31/00Z.
30
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 53 71 52 84 67 / 10 0 0 5 40
WACO 56 73 51 84 67 / 10 0 0 5 20
PARIS 50 69 49 79 67 / 20 5 0 5 40
DENTON 47 70 47 83 63 / 5 0 0 10 50
MCKINNEY 50 69 48 82 66 / 10 0 0 5 40
DALLAS 54 72 52 84 67 / 10 0 0 5 40
TERRELL 53 70 50 82 67 / 30 5 0 5 30
CORSICANA 57 72 53 85 69 / 30 5 0 5 20
TEMPLE 58 76 51 85 67 / 5 0 0 5 20
MINERAL WELLS 48 73 47 87 64 / 0 0 0 10 40
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ091>094-101>105-116>121-129>134-141>146-156>161.
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