259
FXUS64 KFWD 301015
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
515 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE NOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-30, A
FEW OF WHICH MAY ALSO BE SEVERE.
- BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES (30 TO 50
PERCENT) FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF I-20 AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS STILL TAPPING INTO AN
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, BUT A PERSISTENT CAPPING INVERSION HAS KEPT
STORMS LARGELY ELEVATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THAT SAID, STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHEAR AND A COUPLE
THOUSAND J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL KEEP THE HAIL THREAT GOING,
AT LEAST UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL JET MIXES OUT MID MORNING.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA, THOUGH THEY WILL BE
LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-30. SOME OF THESE
WILL LIKELY BECOME SURFACE BASED, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE
DAMAGING WIND CONCERN (ALONG WITH THE HAIL). POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED IN THE NEAR-TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS, OTHERWISE
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH MONDAY/
THE DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR TONIGHT'S THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK
ITS WAY EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, EVENTUALLY EXITING INTO LOUISIANA
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS AND THE DISSIPATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BRING A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THOUGH ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE SHUNTED EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-30 WHERE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT. CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS, EXITING OUR SOUTHEAST-MOST
COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL ENTER SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH MONDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
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LONG TERM
/ISSUED 1227 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025/
/TUESDAY ONWARD/
A WARMING TREND WILL QUICKLY TAKE PLACE STARTING TUESDAY AS
LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN INTENSE
LEE-CYCLONE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL
HELP DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT AS THE FIRST IN WHAT WILL BE A
STRING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS,
BEGINNING WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE
PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT PACIFIC FRONT WILL KICK OFF ONE
BATCH OF CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE FRONT
WILL STALL, PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AROUND THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.
A CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE LOW WILL ADVANCE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD,
PROVIDING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, HEAVY RAIN
WILL BECOME A CONCERN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY MEANDERING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE
MUCH NEEDED RAIN THAT WILL BE RECEIVED, BUT THERE WILL MOST LIKELY
BE MORE SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH INSTANCES OF FLOODING THAT WILL
HAVE TO BE ENDURED. WHATEVER THE CASE, A BREAK IN THE WEATHER
APPEARS LIKELY SOMEWHERE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
LOW WEAKENS AND UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTS TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CONUS.
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AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS MIDWAY
BETWEEN THE METROPLEX AND WACO. THE BETTER INSTABILITY LIES
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, SO ANY ADDITIONAL DIRECT IMPACTS ARE MORE
LIKELY AT KACT WHERE VCTS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 15Z. A SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY EAST OF ALL TAF SITES, BUT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE METROPLEX TO WARRANT VCTS 21-00Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO MAY BECOME REQUIRED IF MODELS TREND
FARTHER WEST WITH THE FRONTAL CONVECTION. A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR AROUND 21Z IN THE METROPLEX WITH FROPA, AND
00-02Z AT KACT.
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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 88 53 71 52 84 / 20 10 0 0 5
WACO 86 56 73 51 84 / 30 10 0 0 5
PARIS 83 50 69 49 79 / 20 20 5 0 5
DENTON 86 47 70 47 83 / 5 5 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 85 50 69 48 82 / 10 10 0 0 5
DALLAS 89 54 72 52 84 / 20 10 0 0 5
TERRELL 85 53 70 50 82 / 20 30 5 0 5
CORSICANA 86 57 72 53 85 / 30 30 5 0 5
TEMPLE 87 58 76 51 85 / 30 5 0 0 5
MINERAL WELLS 89 48 73 47 87 / 20 0 0 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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