307
FXUS64 KFWD 301731
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1231 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-30, A FEW OF WHICH MAY ALSO
BE SEVERE.
- BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES (30 TO 50
PERCENT) FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY, THERE IS
STILL A THREAT FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS,
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
A WARM AND BREEZY SPRING AFTERNOON CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AHEAD
OF THIS, THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST AND MAKE IT JUST TO THE
METROPLEX. AREAS SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE
WILL SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PERHAPS
AS EARLY AS 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGION OF ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL BROADLY COVER AREAS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AND ALONG/EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE, AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP TO AROUND 15%. THIS, COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS, WILL LEAD TO
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THIS THREAT HAS BEEN LESSENED
DUE TO THE CONVECTION AND WETTING RAINFALL MUCH OF THIS AREA
RECEIVED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE FWD MORNING
SOUNDING REVEALS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH MUCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 3,000 J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ASSIST IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. WHILE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS ALSO APPARENT ON
OUR MORNING SOUNDING, THIS WILL BE EASY TO OVERCOME WITH PLENTY
OF LIFT FROM THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. THIS LIFT WILL BE FURTHER
REINFORCED BY A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THIS, SURFACE
BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY THREATS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE LARGE
TO VERY LARGE HAIL, WITH SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACQUIRING
MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. A LOW, NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT
WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EVENING. STORM MODE WILL ALSO DICTATE THE
EVOLUTION OF HAZARDS, WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS POSING THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR ALL HAZARDS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WHICH
COULD INCREASE OUR DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER RETURNING.
POST-FRONTAL AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS STORMS CLEAR OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW/MID 70S.
REEVES
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 1227 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025/
/TUESDAY ONWARD/
A WARMING TREND WILL QUICKLY TAKE PLACE STARTING TUESDAY AS
LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN INTENSE
LEE-CYCLONE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL
HELP DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT AS THE FIRST IN WHAT WILL BE A
STRING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS,
BEGINNING WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE
PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT PACIFIC FRONT WILL KICK OFF ONE
BATCH OF CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE FRONT
WILL STALL, PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AROUND THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.
A CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE LOW WILL ADVANCE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD,
PROVIDING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, HEAVY RAIN
WILL BECOME A CONCERN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY MEANDERING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE
MUCH NEEDED RAIN THAT WILL BE RECEIVED, BUT THERE WILL MOST LIKELY
BE MORE SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH INSTANCES OF FLOODING THAT WILL
HAVE TO BE ENDURED. WHATEVER THE CASE, A BREAK IN THE WEATHER
APPEARS LIKELY SOMEWHERE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
LOW WEAKENS AND UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTS TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CONUS.
30
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...MVFR CEILINGS, EVENING FROPA, VCTS/TSRA POTENTIAL.
MVFR CEILINGS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE GIVEN WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. OUR
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AIRSPACE WILL BEGIN AROUND
20-21Z AS A DRYLINE PUSHES EAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. A
BROKEN LINE OF TSRA WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST OF D10 ALONG
THIS COLD FRONT, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS OVERHEAD AT
DFW/DAL BETWEEN 21-23Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, MAKING IT DOWN TO ACT THIS EVENING BY
AROUND 02-03Z. NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED TAF PERIOD WITH A LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS REACHES
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ACROSS ACT FROM 09-15Z TOMORROW AM.
REEVES
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 88 53 71 52 84 / 20 5 5 0 5
WACO 86 57 73 51 84 / 30 20 5 0 5
PARIS 84 50 69 49 79 / 30 20 5 0 5
DENTON 86 47 69 47 83 / 10 5 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 85 50 69 48 82 / 20 10 5 0 5
DALLAS 89 54 71 52 84 / 20 10 5 0 5
TERRELL 85 53 70 50 82 / 30 20 5 0 5
CORSICANA 86 57 72 53 85 / 40 30 5 0 5
TEMPLE 87 58 76 51 85 / 20 10 5 0 5
MINERAL WELLS 86 48 73 47 87 / 5 0 0 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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