221
FXUS64 KFWD 301922
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
222 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF
I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-30, A FEW OF WHICH MAY ALSO BE SEVERE.
MAINLY FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY
FOR HAIL. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MORE SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1231 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025/
/THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY, THERE IS
STILL A THREAT FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS,
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
A WARM AND BREEZY SPRING AFTERNOON CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AHEAD
OF THIS, THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST AND MAKE IT JUST TO THE
METROPLEX. AREAS SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE
WILL SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PERHAPS
AS EARLY AS 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGION OF ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL BROADLY COVER AREAS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AND ALONG/EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE, AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP TO AROUND 15%. THIS, COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS, WILL LEAD TO
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THIS THREAT HAS BEEN LESSENED
DUE TO THE CONVECTION AND WETTING RAINFALL MUCH OF THIS AREA
RECEIVED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE FWD MORNING
SOUNDING REVEALS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH MUCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 3,000 J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ASSIST IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. WHILE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS ALSO APPARENT ON
OUR MORNING SOUNDING, THIS WILL BE EASY TO OVERCOME WITH PLENTY
OF LIFT FROM THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. THIS LIFT WILL BE FURTHER
REINFORCED BY A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THIS, SURFACE
BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY THREATS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE LARGE
TO VERY LARGE HAIL, WITH SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACQUIRING
MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. A LOW, NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT
WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EVENING. STORM MODE WILL ALSO DICTATE THE
EVOLUTION OF HAZARDS, WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS POSING THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR ALL HAZARDS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WHICH
COULD INCREASE OUR DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER RETURNING.
POST-FRONTAL AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS STORMS CLEAR OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW/MID 70S.
REEVES
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/TUESDAY ONWARDS/
STRONG RETURN FLOW STARTING ON TUESDAY WILL SEND AFTERNOON HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALSO MARK THE RETURN OF SURFACE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
BACK INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. COUPLE THIS UNSTABLE SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND YOU
GET A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT
NEAR DAILY RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY, WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED, AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE SEVERE STORMS.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO STRONG CAPPING THAT MAY BE IN PLACE.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN INCREASING FLOODING THREAT,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN. EITHER WAY,
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST PEOPLE THROUGH
THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXACT DETAILS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
NARROW DOWN THIS FAR OUT, SO CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
REEVES
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1231 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025/
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...MVFR CEILINGS, EVENING FROPA, VCTS/TSRA POTENTIAL.
MVFR CEILINGS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE GIVEN WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. OUR
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AIRSPACE WILL BEGIN AROUND
20-21Z AS A DRYLINE PUSHES EAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. A
BROKEN LINE OF TSRA WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST OF D10 ALONG
THIS COLD FRONT, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS OVERHEAD AT
DFW/DAL BETWEEN 21-23Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, MAKING IT DOWN TO ACT THIS EVENING BY
AROUND 02-03Z. NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED TAF PERIOD WITH A LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS REACHES
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ACROSS ACT FROM 09-15Z TOMORROW AM.
REEVES
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 53 71 53 83 68 / 5 5 0 10 60
WACO 57 73 53 84 68 / 20 5 0 5 30
PARIS 50 69 50 81 66 / 20 5 0 5 50
DENTON 47 69 48 83 64 / 5 0 0 10 60
MCKINNEY 50 69 50 82 67 / 10 5 0 10 50
DALLAS 54 71 53 85 68 / 10 5 0 10 50
TERRELL 53 70 53 83 68 / 20 5 0 5 40
CORSICANA 57 72 56 84 69 / 30 5 0 5 30
TEMPLE 58 76 54 83 68 / 10 5 0 5 20
MINERAL WELLS 48 73 49 87 64 / 0 0 0 10 50
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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