722
FXUS64 KFWD 302353
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
653 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING MAINLY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY
FOR HAIL. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MORE SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH MONDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 7 PM. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INITIATION OF A LONE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER
FORT WORTH EARLIER THIS EVENING, DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CELLS SINCE
HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE PROPENSITY FOR
CELLS TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW, AND
THEREFORE QUICKLY BECOMING ELEVATED AND CUT OFF FROM LOW-LEVEL
MOIST SOUTHERLY INFLOW. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRE-FRONTAL
INSTABILITY HAS GONE UNREALIZED, BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR NEW CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT, WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS, AND CURRENT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAY EXHIBIT AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING. WITHOUT STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT PRESENT BEING
FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE BOUNDARY AND MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS, THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. HOWEVER, THE MOST
LIKELY STORM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR, WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF
ALL HAZARDS IN THIS OPEN WARM SECTOR REGION.
THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE CWA TO THE SOUTH BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER, BRINGING AN END TO ALL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. A MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE IN, WITH TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES COOLER TO BEGIN THE
WORKWEEK. WHILE CURRENT POST-FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS ARE LOCALLY
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH, A LIGHTER NORTH BREEZE WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 222 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025/
/TUESDAY ONWARDS/
STRONG RETURN FLOW STARTING ON TUESDAY WILL SEND AFTERNOON HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALSO MARK THE RETURN OF SURFACE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
BACK INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. COUPLE THIS UNSTABLE SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND YOU
GET A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT
NEAR DAILY RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY, WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED, AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE SEVERE STORMS.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO STRONG CAPPING THAT MAY BE IN PLACE.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN INCREASING FLOODING THREAT,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN. EITHER WAY,
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST PEOPLE THROUGH
THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXACT DETAILS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
NARROW DOWN THIS FAR OUT, SO CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
REEVES
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
A STRONG COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR A LONE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WITHIN D10 EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS AS OF 00Z, WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS NOW
PREVAILING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH WACO IN ANOTHER 2-3
HOURS, BUT APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONVECTION BASED
ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MID-LEVEL CIGS AT 6-8 KFT MAY LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT, WITH SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER CLOSER TO 4
KFT POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW. A NORTH BREEZE OF 10-15
KTS WILL PREVAIL BEFORE DIMINISHING TOMORROW EVENING.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 52 72 53 83 68 / 5 0 0 10 60
WACO 56 73 53 84 68 / 20 0 0 5 30
PARIS 49 70 50 81 66 / 10 5 0 5 50
DENTON 46 71 48 83 64 / 0 0 0 10 60
MCKINNEY 49 70 50 82 67 / 5 0 0 10 50
DALLAS 53 72 53 85 68 / 5 0 0 10 50
TERRELL 51 71 53 83 68 / 20 5 0 5 40
CORSICANA 56 73 56 84 69 / 20 0 0 5 30
TEMPLE 57 75 54 83 68 / 10 0 0 5 20
MINERAL WELLS 48 75 49 87 64 / 0 0 0 10 50
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ105>107-120>123-133>135-144>146.
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