279
FXUS64 KFWD 310613
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
113 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ELEVATED GRASS FIRE THREAT IS EXPECTED WEST OF I-35 TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF STORMS (40 TO 60%) TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
BETTER STORM CHANCES (70%) WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS (80 TO 90% CHANCE) WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS HAVE FINALLY EXITED TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL EITHER CANCEL
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OR LET IT EXPIRE AT 2 AM. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL NOW PROVIDE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS AND CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR A
NICE MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE HEADS FOR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL QUICKLY BECOME WEDGED BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
A STRENGTHENING LEE CYCLONE TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY, AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE ROCKIES.
THE RESULTING NARROW PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS FROM TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM AND BREEZY
TUESDAY WILL BE THE RESULT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW OF
THE WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOW 90S AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO EMERGE IN THE PLAINS, THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
AND A DRYLINE ENTERS THE BIG COUNTRY. THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BECOME ELEVATED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE SUBSEQUENT
WARM, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE NEAR THE DRYLINE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT MAY BE LIMITED TO AREAS NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER WHERE STRONGER ASCENT WILL EXIST. WILL STILL
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-20 FOR THIS
4-7 PM TIME FRAME IN THE EVENT THAT ISOLATED STORMS CAN BREAK
THROUGH THE CAP. ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BOTH POSSIBLE. BETTER
STORM CHANCES MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THAT NIGHT (DISCUSSED
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION).
30
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 222 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025/
/TUESDAY ONWARDS/
STRONG RETURN FLOW STARTING ON TUESDAY WILL SEND AFTERNOON HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALSO MARK THE RETURN OF SURFACE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
BACK INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. COUPLE THIS UNSTABLE SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND YOU
GET A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT
NEAR DAILY RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY, WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED, AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE SEVERE STORMS.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO STRONG CAPPING THAT MAY BE IN PLACE.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN INCREASING FLOODING THREAT,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN. EITHER WAY,
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST PEOPLE THROUGH
THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXACT DETAILS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
NARROW DOWN THIS FAR OUT, SO CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
REEVES
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
METROPLEX, BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY IMPACT KACT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOUTH FLOW ABOVE THE FRONTAL LAYER MAY ADVECT SOME OF THESE
CLOUDS NORTH, BUT THE DEEPENING LAYER (WITH INCREASING LATITUDE)
SHOULD KEEP ANY CIGS THAT MAY REACH THE METROPLEX VFR. NORTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT,
AND THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED STORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN
WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES.
30
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 53 84 68 85 64 / 0 10 60 40 70
WACO 53 84 68 86 68 / 0 5 30 30 30
PARIS 50 81 66 79 63 / 0 5 50 70 70
DENTON 49 83 64 83 58 / 0 20 60 30 70
MCKINNEY 49 82 67 83 63 / 0 10 50 50 70
DALLAS 54 84 68 86 65 / 0 5 50 50 70
TERRELL 52 83 68 82 66 / 0 5 40 60 60
CORSICANA 54 86 69 83 69 / 0 5 30 50 50
TEMPLE 54 86 68 87 68 / 0 5 20 20 30
MINERAL WELLS 49 88 64 87 58 / 0 20 50 10 60
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ147-148-161-162-175.
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