811
FXUS64 KFWD 310844
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
344 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ELEVATED GRASS FIRE THREAT IS EXPECTED WEST OF I-35 TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (30 TO 50%) TUESDAY EVENING WILL
GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED (50 TO 60%) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE, POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
- FLOODING WILL BE OF INCREASING CONCERN HEADING INTO THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 113 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025/
/THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS HAVE FINALLY EXITED TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL EITHER CANCEL
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OR LET IT EXPIRE AT 2 AM. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL NOW PROVIDE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS AND CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR A
NICE MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE HEADS FOR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL QUICKLY BECOME WEDGED BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
A STRENGTHENING LEE CYCLONE TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY, AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE ROCKIES.
THE RESULTING NARROW PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS FROM TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM AND BREEZY
TUESDAY WILL BE THE RESULT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW OF
THE WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOW 90S AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO EMERGE IN THE PLAINS, THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
AND A DRYLINE ENTERS THE BIG COUNTRY. THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BECOME ELEVATED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE SUBSEQUENT
WARM, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE NEAR THE DRYLINE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT MAY BE LIMITED TO AREAS NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER WHERE STRONGER ASCENT WILL EXIST. WILL STILL
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-20 FOR THIS
4-7 PM TIME FRAME IN THE EVENT THAT ISOLATED STORMS CAN BREAK
THROUGH THE CAP. ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BOTH POSSIBLE. BETTER
STORM CHANCES MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THAT NIGHT (DISCUSSED
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION).
30
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
..TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
NORTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35/35W WHERE CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE ON
THE ORDER OF 50 TO 60%. CAPPING SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE
ISOLATED (30% CHANCE) SOUTH OF I-20, EVEN AS FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOSES INTO
THE REGION. STRONG MOISTURE RETURN, HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION, DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS AND 0-1KM
SRH RANGING FROM 250 TO 350 M2/S WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SET UP WILL SUPPORT
DESTABILIZATION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, PRESENTING A
NOCTURNAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HEADING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BE SURE TO HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS
OVERNIGHT WHILE YOU SLEEP TUESDAY NIGHT.
EAST OF THE I-35/35W CORRIDOR, A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CONVECTION WILL
WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION OWING TO STRONG
WAA ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER. MECHANICAL FORCING ALONG
THE INTERFACE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL DECREASE INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS WELL DUE TO THE SLOWING DOWN, AND EVENTUAL STALLING OF
THE BOUNDARY BY MID-DAY WEDNESDAY.
..WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WEDNESDAY EVENING, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (40 TO 60% CHANCE) ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR (BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES RANGING FROM 50 TO 70
KNOTS) AND MODERATE DESTABILIZATION (CAPE RANGING FROM 1500 TO
2500 J/KG) WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CURRENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY EVENING APPEAR TO BE LACKING IN
SPEED SHEAR AND CURVATURE, THUS SUGGESTING THE TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS WILL ADVECT BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH AND
WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND CAA ALOFT (THIS
WILL HELP MAINTAIN INSTABILITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS), STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, AND ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS DUE TO THE
LLJ WILL SUPPORT AN ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR STORMS (50
TO 70% CHANCE) WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 (CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL ZONE). ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WARM-SECTOR CONVECTION
(30 TO 50% CHANCE) WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-20.
..THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND AN OSCILLATING FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT WILL RESIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
DETAILS OF THESE LATTER ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME,
AS THE AREA AT RISK AND MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND
ON HOW PRIOR ROUNDS OF CONVECTION PLAY OUT. REGARDLESS OF HOW THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT UNFOLDS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND, MULTIPLE, POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING AN INCREASING FLOODING THREAT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY SATURDAY, RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN TEXAS COULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35/35E.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA, FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (80
TO 90% CHANCE) WILL GIVE WAY TO LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S. DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF POST-FRONTAL CLEARING AND CAA, UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO MAKE
IT OUT OF THE 50S. THIS IN PART WILL BE DUE TO LINGERING
CLOUDINESS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SATURDAY STORM SYSTEM. AS SKIES
CLEAR SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
DARRAH
AVIATION
/ISSUED 113 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025/
/06Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
METROPLEX, BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY IMPACT KACT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOUTH FLOW ABOVE THE FRONTAL LAYER MAY ADVECT SOME OF THESE
CLOUDS NORTH, BUT THE DEEPENING LAYER (WITH INCREASING LATITUDE)
SHOULD KEEP ANY CIGS THAT MAY REACH THE METROPLEX VFR. NORTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT,
AND THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED STORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN
WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES.
30
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 70 53 84 68 85 / 0 0 10 60 40
WACO 71 53 84 68 86 / 0 0 5 30 30
PARIS 69 50 81 66 79 / 5 0 5 50 70
DENTON 69 49 83 64 83 / 0 0 20 60 30
MCKINNEY 69 49 82 67 83 / 0 0 10 50 50
DALLAS 71 54 84 68 86 / 0 0 5 50 50
TERRELL 69 52 83 68 82 / 5 0 5 40 60
CORSICANA 70 54 86 69 83 / 0 0 5 30 50
TEMPLE 71 54 86 68 87 / 0 0 5 20 20
MINERAL WELLS 71 49 88 64 87 / 0 0 20 50 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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