173
FXUS64 KFWD 311704
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1204 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER CAN
BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
- THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE, POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
- FLOODING WILL BE OF INCREASING CONCERN HEADING INTO THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN CENTRAL TEXAS. A STEADY
NORTH WIND AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A NICE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE NICE WEATHER
WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLETHORA
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD WITH DEEPER TROUGHING
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE FALLS THROUGHOUT THE
PLAINS INDUCE A POLEWARD MASS RESPONSE RESULTING IN A QUICK WIND
SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AS SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN,
THEY'LL TAP INTO A FAIRLY WIDE POOL OF MID AND UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY ADVECT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND WE'LL SEE OUR DEWPOINTS CLIMB ABRUPTLY
FROM THE LOWER 40S INTO THE LOWER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S, IT'LL
FEEL NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED JUST WEST OF OUR AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME
MORNING CLOUDS, STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND COOLING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING CAPPING
INVERSION WITH AROUND 2500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT. FARTHER SOUTH IN OUR AREA, IT'S LIKELY
THAT CAPPING WILL WIN OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING FREE OF CONVECTION. BY EARLY EVENING THOUGH, LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND STRONGER FORCING WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS. WE SHOULD SEE
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20.
ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN SURFACE BASED LATE INTO THE EVENING
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER,
INCLUDING A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL LIKELY WORK TO
STRENGTHEN A LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION. DESPITE THIS, SEVERE
WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH ANY ONGOING CONVECTION, AS ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
SOME INTERMITTENT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025/
/TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
..TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
NORTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35/35W WHERE CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE ON
THE ORDER OF 50 TO 60%. CAPPING SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE
ISOLATED (30% CHANCE) SOUTH OF I-20, EVEN AS FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOSES INTO
THE REGION. STRONG MOISTURE RETURN, HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION, DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS AND 0-1KM
SRH RANGING FROM 250 TO 350 M2/S WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SET UP WILL SUPPORT
DESTABILIZATION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, PRESENTING A
NOCTURNAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HEADING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BE SURE TO HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS
OVERNIGHT WHILE YOU SLEEP TUESDAY NIGHT.
EAST OF THE I-35/35W CORRIDOR, A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CONVECTION WILL
WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION OWING TO STRONG
WAA ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER. MECHANICAL FORCING ALONG
THE INTERFACE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL DECREASE INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS WELL DUE TO THE SLOWING DOWN, AND EVENTUAL STALLING OF
THE BOUNDARY BY MID-DAY WEDNESDAY.
..WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WEDNESDAY EVENING, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (40 TO 60% CHANCE) ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR (BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES RANGING FROM 50 TO 70
KNOTS) AND MODERATE DESTABILIZATION (CAPE RANGING FROM 1500 TO
2500 J/KG) WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CURRENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY EVENING APPEAR TO BE LACKING IN
SPEED SHEAR AND CURVATURE, THUS SUGGESTING THE TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS WILL ADVECT BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH AND
WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND CAA ALOFT (THIS
WILL HELP MAINTAIN INSTABILITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS), STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, AND ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS DUE TO THE
LLJ WILL SUPPORT AN ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR STORMS (50
TO 70% CHANCE) WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 (CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL ZONE). ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WARM-SECTOR CONVECTION
(30 TO 50% CHANCE) WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-20.
..THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND AN OSCILLATING FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT WILL RESIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
DETAILS OF THESE LATTER ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME,
AS THE AREA AT RISK AND MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND
ON HOW PRIOR ROUNDS OF CONVECTION PLAY OUT. REGARDLESS OF HOW THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT UNFOLDS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND, MULTIPLE, POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING AN INCREASING FLOODING THREAT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY SATURDAY, RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN TEXAS COULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35/35E.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA, FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (80
TO 90% CHANCE) WILL GIVE WAY TO LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S. DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF POST-FRONTAL CLEARING AND CAA, UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO MAKE
IT OUT OF THE 50S. THIS IN PART WILL BE DUE TO LINGERING
CLOUDINESS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SATURDAY STORM SYSTEM. AS SKIES
CLEAR SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
DARRAH
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KT BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY
MORNING, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT ANY MVFR CIGS MAY ARRIVE WELL
AFTER DAYBREAK, SO WE'LL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS ON THE TIMING OF
ANY LOWER CIGS INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFTER DARK AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 71 53 84 67 84 / 0 0 5 60 40
WACO 72 51 83 67 86 / 0 0 0 20 20
PARIS 70 50 80 66 78 / 0 0 10 50 80
DENTON 69 48 83 64 82 / 0 0 5 60 30
MCKINNEY 69 50 81 66 81 / 0 0 5 50 50
DALLAS 72 53 84 66 84 / 0 0 5 50 40
TERRELL 70 51 83 67 82 / 0 0 5 40 60
CORSICANA 72 55 84 69 84 / 0 0 5 20 50
TEMPLE 75 53 84 68 88 / 0 0 5 20 20
MINERAL WELLS 74 49 86 64 86 / 0 0 10 60 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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