519
FXUS64 KFWD 311847
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
147 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER CAN
BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
- THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE, POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
- FLOODING WILL BE OF INCREASING CONCERN HEADING INTO THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1204 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025/
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN CENTRAL TEXAS. A STEADY
NORTH WIND AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A NICE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE NICE WEATHER
WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLETHORA
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD WITH DEEPER TROUGHING
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE FALLS THROUGHOUT THE
PLAINS INDUCE A POLEWARD MASS RESPONSE RESULTING IN A QUICK WIND
SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AS SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN,
THEY'LL TAP INTO A FAIRLY WIDE POOL OF MID AND UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY ADVECT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND WE'LL SEE OUR DEWPOINTS CLIMB ABRUPTLY
FROM THE LOWER 40S INTO THE LOWER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S, IT'LL
FEEL NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED JUST WEST OF OUR AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME
MORNING CLOUDS, STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND COOLING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING CAPPING
INVERSION WITH AROUND 2500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT. FARTHER SOUTH IN OUR AREA, IT'S LIKELY
THAT CAPPING WILL WIN OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING FREE OF CONVECTION. BY EARLY EVENING THOUGH, LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND STRONGER FORCING WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS. WE SHOULD SEE
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20.
ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN SURFACE BASED LATE INTO THE EVENING
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER,
INCLUDING A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL LIKELY WORK TO
STRENGTHEN A LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION. DESPITE THIS, SEVERE
WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH ANY ONGOING CONVECTION, AS ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
SOME INTERMITTENT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT, BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH MIDDAY AS THE INITIAL
WAVE OF ASCENT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE, DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES, WHILE A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF I-35. THIS
PSEUDO-FRONT/DRYLINE FEATURE WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SPREADS
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS IT DOES, INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL BE WEAKER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
BE LOWER, BUT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
ANY ONGOING CONVECTION FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE
AT LEAST THROUGH PART OF THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDING DOWN.
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BOUNDARY AGAIN OSCILLATING
BETWEEN I-20 AND THE RED RIVER. ANOTHER WAVE OF ASCENT IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD NORTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO FRIDAY. IT'S A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN DURING THIS TIME WITH
RESPECT TO THE SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE TIMING AND UNKNOWN DEGREE
OF RECOVERY WE CAN EXPECT, BUT WE'LL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MODEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKING LIKE IT WILL GENERALLY BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN I-20 AND THE RED RIVER FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME,
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH FLOODING PROBABILITY INCREASING BY THE WEEKEND.
DUNN
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1204 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KT BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY
MORNING, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT ANY MVFR CIGS MAY ARRIVE WELL
AFTER DAYBREAK, SO WE'LL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS ON THE TIMING OF
ANY LOWER CIGS INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFTER DARK AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 53 84 67 85 66 / 0 5 60 50 70
WACO 51 83 67 86 69 / 0 0 20 30 30
PARIS 50 80 66 78 64 / 0 10 50 80 80
DENTON 48 83 64 84 59 / 0 5 60 40 80
MCKINNEY 50 81 66 82 64 / 0 5 50 60 80
DALLAS 53 84 66 84 67 / 0 5 50 50 70
TERRELL 51 83 67 81 67 / 0 5 40 70 70
CORSICANA 55 84 69 83 70 / 0 5 20 60 40
TEMPLE 53 84 68 87 69 / 0 5 20 30 20
MINERAL WELLS 49 86 64 86 59 / 0 10 60 20 70
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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