817
FXUS64 KFWD 031049
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
549 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND RAIN-FREE THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- DAILY STORM CHANCES RETURN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
ALL FORECAST TRENDS DISCUSSED BELOW REMAIN ON TRACK, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING'S UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO INCORPORATE PRESENT OBSERVATIONS.
12
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THIS WEEKEND/
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS THAT THE PERSISTENT STRATIFORM
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING CONSOLIDATED
SURFACE BOUNDARY (OUTFLOW + COLD FRONT) HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY DAYBREAK FORCING THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT BOUT OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO SHIFT
EAST OVER THE MS VALLEY. THE DEPARTING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY LATER
TODAY SETTING UP A SYNOPTIC OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION
WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO
TURN MORE EASTERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STILL
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD KEEPING
CONDITIONS PLEASANT AND RAIN-FREE FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
12
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 252 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025/
/NEXT WEEK/
THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST. THE
UPPER LOW WILL BRING MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
NEXT WEEK AS IT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PLAINS.
THE FIRST (AND LIKELY THE MOST INTENSE) STORM CHANCES WILL
BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE
EAST FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW. CONVECTION WILL INITIATE OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY EVENING ALONG A
PACIFIC FRONT. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL PUSH EAST
INTO THE BIG COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT, LIKELY GROWING UPSCALE IN THE
PROCESS AS A LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES ESTABLISHED. A WEAKENING TREND
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING AS ACTIVITY ENTERS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET MIXES OUT, BUT ANY WEAKENING WOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY. STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS, BUT AT THIS
TIME ITS A BIT TOO SOON TO KNOW THE EXACT EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.
STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY,
EVENTUALLY EXITING INTO EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH THE ATTENDANT PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LOW WILL
WORK ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, PROVIDING ENOUGH ASCENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED AS THE ENTIRE
REGION SHOULD REMAIN IN THE COOL SECTOR FOLLOWING THE TUESDAY
FRONT. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL, BUT THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL THEN DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ARKLATEX, PROVIDING ONE MORE ROUND OF
SCATTERED, ELEVATED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
THEN REDEVELOP AS THE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF NEXT
SATURDAY, BRINGING MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND.
30
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EXTENDED TAF PERIOD ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN
MORE EASTERLY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE ENOUGH
PROXIMITY FOR WINDS TO REMAIN EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH 05/00Z.
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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 74 53 76 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 20
WACO 74 50 75 55 76 / 0 0 0 0 40
PARIS 71 49 73 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 5
DENTON 72 47 74 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 20
MCKINNEY 72 49 74 52 75 / 0 0 0 0 20
DALLAS 74 54 76 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 20
TERRELL 73 49 74 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 20
CORSICANA 76 52 76 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 20
TEMPLE 76 50 77 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 40
MINERAL WELLS 74 49 76 52 74 / 0 0 0 0 40
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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