139
FXUS64 KFWD 031546
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1046 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNNY AND COOL THIS WEEKEND!
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MUCH DRIER AND COOL AIR HAS SPILLED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE NICE WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND BENEATH SUBTLE MID
LEVEL RIDGING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S WITH MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
WHICH WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. ENJOY THE
NICE WEATHER BECAUSE STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK WITH
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 252 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025/
/NEXT WEEK/
THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST. THE
UPPER LOW WILL BRING MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
NEXT WEEK AS IT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PLAINS.
THE FIRST (AND LIKELY THE MOST INTENSE) STORM CHANCES WILL
BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE
EAST FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW. CONVECTION WILL INITIATE OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY EVENING ALONG A
PACIFIC FRONT. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL PUSH EAST
INTO THE BIG COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT, LIKELY GROWING UPSCALE IN THE
PROCESS AS A LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES ESTABLISHED. A WEAKENING TREND
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING AS ACTIVITY ENTERS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET MIXES OUT, BUT ANY WEAKENING WOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY. STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS, BUT AT THIS
TIME ITS A BIT TOO SOON TO KNOW THE EXACT EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.
STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY,
EVENTUALLY EXITING INTO EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH THE ATTENDANT PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LOW WILL
WORK ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, PROVIDING ENOUGH ASCENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED AS THE ENTIRE
REGION SHOULD REMAIN IN THE COOL SECTOR FOLLOWING THE TUESDAY
FRONT. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL, BUT THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL THEN DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ARKLATEX, PROVIDING ONE MORE ROUND OF
SCATTERED, ELEVATED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
THEN REDEVELOP AS THE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF NEXT
SATURDAY, BRINGING MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND.
30
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 KT BECOMING LIGHT EAST THEN SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 74 53 77 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 20
WACO 74 51 76 55 76 / 0 0 0 0 40
PARIS 71 48 73 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 5
DENTON 72 48 75 52 74 / 0 0 0 0 20
MCKINNEY 72 49 75 52 75 / 0 0 0 0 20
DALLAS 75 54 77 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 20
TERRELL 73 50 74 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 20
CORSICANA 76 52 76 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 20
TEMPLE 76 51 77 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 40
MINERAL WELLS 74 49 76 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 40
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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