121
FXUS64 KFWD 032348
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
648 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNNY AND COOL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND!
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. OUR COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CRISP MORNING TOMORROW WITH SIMILAR LOW
TEMPERATURE READINGS, BEFORE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD, WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
DURING THE DAYTIME WHILE REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW 10 MPH. EXPECT A
STEADY INCREASE IN CIRRUS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOLLOWING THE BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION
THIS WEEKEND, RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK,
AND THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST BELOW.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025/
/MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BY MONDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST QUICKLY SPREADING EASTWARD TO TAKE ITS
PLACE. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, MODEST MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL COMMENCE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAPID MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING TO OUR WEST AT THIS TIME AND MAY PUSH AS FAR AS THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY ISN'T EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE. LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE SPREADS STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT INTO WEST TEXAS, DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT, BUT MOST OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR WEST. ANY ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD BE IN
A WEAKENING PHASE AS WE GET INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
LOOKS LIKE THE DAY WHEN WE'LL SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH SPREADS
OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, HOWEVER THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. VERY STRONG FORCING
SHOULD LEAD TO A RAPID UPTICK IN THE COVERAGE OF RAIN/STORMS, BUT
THIS MAY OUTPACE THE INSTABILITY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM
FRONT. IF IT DOES, MOST OF THE STORMS WOULD BE SUB SEVERE,
ALTHOUGH THERE WOULD REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS GIVEN
THE WIND FIELDS. IF WE DO GET A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS BEFORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS,
THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE GREATER. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW, POPS WILL REMAIN NEAR 100% ON TUESDAY WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CUT OFF FROM STRONGER FLOW TO THE
NORTH, AND A LINGERING UPPER LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ANYWHERE FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WOULD KEEP INTERMITTENT RAIN/STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT
LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE IT WON'T
RAIN EVERY DAY, LOW STORM CHANCES SEEM PLAUSIBLE IN THE WED
THROUGH FRI TIMEFRAME, PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEK
WOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
DUNN
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETUNING TO A PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW MORNING WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CIRRUS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 54 76 56 75 62 / 0 0 0 30 80
WACO 51 75 55 74 64 / 0 0 0 50 80
PARIS 49 73 50 75 59 / 0 0 0 5 40
DENTON 48 75 51 74 58 / 0 0 0 30 80
MCKINNEY 49 74 51 75 60 / 0 0 0 20 70
DALLAS 54 76 56 76 63 / 0 0 0 30 70
TERRELL 50 75 52 77 61 / 0 0 0 20 60
CORSICANA 51 77 55 78 64 / 0 0 0 30 60
TEMPLE 51 78 55 78 65 / 0 0 0 50 80
MINERAL WELLS 49 77 53 73 60 / 0 0 5 50 90
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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