334
FXUS64 KFWD 040539
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNNY AND COOL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND!
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/
A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ARE SETTING UP AN OMEGA
BLOCK SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TONIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COMBINED
WITH A BROAD, COOL SURFACE HIGH STRETCHING FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE
GREAT LAKES, THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF
SATURDAY'S DRY AND PLEASANT LATE SPRING CONDITIONS. BUT FIRST,
SUBSIDENCE AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL
COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNRISE.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT JUST
EAST OF THE REGION, ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
WESTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, ENHANCING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT, SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND HILL
COUNTRY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY, REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE MIDDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY.
12
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025/
/MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BY MONDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST QUICKLY SPREADING EASTWARD TO TAKE ITS
PLACE. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, MODEST MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL COMMENCE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAPID MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING TO OUR WEST AT THIS TIME AND MAY PUSH AS FAR AS THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY ISN'T EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE. LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE SPREADS STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT INTO WEST TEXAS, DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT, BUT MOST OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR WEST. ANY ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD BE IN
A WEAKENING PHASE AS WE GET INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
LOOKS LIKE THE DAY WHEN WE'LL SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH SPREADS
OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, HOWEVER THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. VERY STRONG FORCING
SHOULD LEAD TO A RAPID UPTICK IN THE COVERAGE OF RAIN/STORMS, BUT
THIS MAY OUTPACE THE INSTABILITY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM
FRONT. IF IT DOES, MOST OF THE STORMS WOULD BE SUB SEVERE,
ALTHOUGH THERE WOULD REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS GIVEN
THE WIND FIELDS. IF WE DO GET A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS BEFORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS,
THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE GREATER. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW, POPS WILL REMAIN NEAR 100% ON TUESDAY WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CUT OFF FROM STRONGER FLOW TO THE
NORTH, AND A LINGERING UPPER LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ANYWHERE FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WOULD KEEP INTERMITTENT RAIN/STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT
LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE IT WON'T
RAIN EVERY DAY, LOW STORM CHANCES SEEM PLAUSIBLE IN THE WED
THROUGH FRI TIMEFRAME, PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEK
WOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
DUNN
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
AVIATION CONCERNS...NONE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING EAST THEN SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
PASSING CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
12
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 56 75 62 75 61 / 0 40 80 100 30
WACO 55 73 64 80 60 / 0 60 80 100 20
PARIS 50 75 59 67 59 / 0 5 40 90 50
DENTON 50 73 58 74 56 / 0 40 80 100 40
MCKINNEY 52 75 60 71 59 / 0 20 70 100 40
DALLAS 57 75 63 75 62 / 0 40 70 100 30
TERRELL 53 75 61 74 61 / 0 20 60 100 30
CORSICANA 55 77 64 78 63 / 0 40 60 100 30
TEMPLE 55 75 65 83 61 / 0 70 80 100 20
MINERAL WELLS 53 72 60 79 56 / 5 70 90 100 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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