932
FXUS64 KFWD 041053
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
553 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNNY AND COOL AGAIN TODAY.
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
IT'S ANOTHER COOL MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 50S AND
SEVERAL LOW-LYING OR SHELTERED LOCATIONS ALREADY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 40S. CLEAR SKIES, APART FROM SOME PASSING CIRRUS, AND LIGHT
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS MEANS INSOLATION WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AGAIN.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
12
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/
A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ARE SETTING UP AN OMEGA
BLOCK SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TONIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COMBINED
WITH A BROAD, COOL SURFACE HIGH STRETCHING FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE
GREAT LAKES, THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF
SATURDAY'S DRY AND PLEASANT LATE SPRING CONDITIONS. BUT FIRST,
SUBSIDENCE AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL
COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNRISE.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT JUST
EAST OF THE REGION, ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
WESTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, ENHANCING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT, SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND HILL
COUNTRY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY, REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE MIDDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY.
12
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 409 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025/
/MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE ONGOING
MONDAY EVENING AS A RESULT OF THE WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT,
WE'LL ALSO BE MONITORING ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE
AREA WITH THE DRYLINE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN, WITH SOME LEVEL
UPSCALE GROWTH ANTICIPATED AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY. A 30-35 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP AS THE UPPER
TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS, WHICH SHOULD HELP
MAINTAIN THIS CONVECTION FARTHER EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION. NOW THAT THIS PERIOD IS GETTING INTO
THE CAMS, THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME UPSCALE
GROWTH WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT WHERE EXACTLY THIS OCCURS AND STILL
QUITE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THESE STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS IF/WHEN THEY APPROACH, THERE COULD BE (PRIMARILY) A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX DEPENDENT ON
HOW ORGANIZED IT BECOMES. OVERALL, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR
THESE STORMS IS TO WEAKEN BY THE TIME THEY REACHES ANY WESTERN OR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES; HOWEVER, BUT IF THIS WERE TO CHANGE AND THE
UNLIKELY SCENARIO PLAYED OUT WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION MOVING IN,
THERE WOULD BE A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY, STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
BE OCCURRING, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING 925-850
MB IVT > 250 KG M^-1 S^-1. NAEFS/ENS PERCENTILES ALSO DEPICT
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS FOR IVT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS ON
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN NORTH TX, IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL SHARPEN A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT
TO THE WEST, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AS WELL. THE
EVOLUTION OF STORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MONDAY NIGHT'S
CONVECTION FROM THE WEST, WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT MESSY DAY IN RELATION TO THE
SURFACE FEATURES AND WHAT RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT/TYPE EXISTS IN
WHAT LOCATION, IF ANY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK/MODERATE CAPPING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT
OF DESTABILIZATION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGARDLESS,
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN THE
INTENSITY/SEVERE THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY IS QUITE
LOW AT THIS POINT, BUT WE SHOULD HOPEFULLY SEE SOME BETTER
ALIGNMENT FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE NOW THAT WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE AVAILABLE PERIOD. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS,
WHICH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AS STORMS EXIT.
A HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY GIVEN THE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND HIGH COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN CONSIDERATION OF THE RECENT
RAINFALL. NO PARTICULAR AREA CAN CONFIDENTLY BE HIGHLIGHTED FOR
THE GREATEST FLOOD THREAT AT THIS POINT DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
WHERE THE LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR, BUT THIS WOULD
GENERALLY BE FAVORED TOWARDS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS COMPARED TO
NORTH TEXAS. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE MOST LIKELY
RANGE OF PRECIP AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.5" TO 1" (25TH PERCENTILE) TO
THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF AROUND 2 TO 3" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. AS THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE QUIETER, ALTHOUGH
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. LOW RAIN CHANCES EXIST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (MOSTLY FOR NORTH TEXAS), AS THE UPPER
LOW IS SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND
THE SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME 60 DEGREE MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY FOR NORTH
TEXAS.
GORDON
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS WITH CALM WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING.
12
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 76 56 75 61 73 / 0 0 40 80 100
WACO 76 55 74 63 78 / 0 0 50 80 100
PARIS 74 50 75 58 66 / 0 0 5 40 90
DENTON 74 51 73 58 71 / 0 0 40 80 100
MCKINNEY 74 52 74 59 69 / 0 0 20 80 100
DALLAS 77 57 75 61 73 / 0 0 40 80 100
TERRELL 75 53 75 61 73 / 0 0 20 70 100
CORSICANA 76 55 77 63 77 / 0 0 40 80 100
TEMPLE 77 55 74 64 81 / 0 0 70 80 100
MINERAL WELLS 76 53 72 59 77 / 0 5 70 90 100
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page