161
FXUS64 KFWD 041704
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1204 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNNY AND COOL AGAIN TODAY.
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ENJOY THE SUNNY COOL AFTERNOON TODAY AS CHANGES ARE QUICKLY ON THE
WAY AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AT
THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME MORE EASTERLY IN
RESPONSE, BUT OVERALL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN DRY
AND RELATIVELY COOL. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME AND THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IN
RESPONSE, STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
SURGE NORTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST, WE'LL SEE A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS, BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF I-35. MODEL GUIDANCE IS PARTICULARLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND AS SUCH DEVELOPS QUITE A BIT OF
HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF NORTH
TEXAS BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MODELS CAN OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH
ACCURATE DEPICTIONS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE REGION, THERE IS CERTAINLY NOTHING PROHIBITIVE WITHIN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS WE'LL REMAIN
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH. A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WOULD LIKELY KEEP ANY LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND, BUT MODEST AMOUNTS OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE WHERE
RAIN/STORMS WOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE. THAT BEING SAID, WE'VE
RAISED POPS A BIT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.
MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS ACTIVITY WOULD SPREAD EAST
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS ACCOMPANIED BY A SEVERE THREAT. ANY
CLUSTERS OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 409 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025/
/MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE ONGOING
MONDAY EVENING AS A RESULT OF THE WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT,
WE'LL ALSO BE MONITORING ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE
AREA WITH THE DRYLINE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN, WITH SOME LEVEL
UPSCALE GROWTH ANTICIPATED AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY. A 30-35 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP AS THE UPPER
TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS, WHICH SHOULD HELP
MAINTAIN THIS CONVECTION FARTHER EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION. NOW THAT THIS PERIOD IS GETTING INTO
THE CAMS, THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME UPSCALE
GROWTH WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT WHERE EXACTLY THIS OCCURS AND STILL
QUITE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THESE STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS IF/WHEN THEY APPROACH, THERE COULD BE (PRIMARILY) A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX DEPENDENT ON
HOW ORGANIZED IT BECOMES. OVERALL, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR
THESE STORMS IS TO WEAKEN BY THE TIME THEY REACHES ANY WESTERN OR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES; HOWEVER, BUT IF THIS WERE TO CHANGE AND THE
UNLIKELY SCENARIO PLAYED OUT WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION MOVING IN,
THERE WOULD BE A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY, STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
BE OCCURRING, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING 925-850
MB IVT > 250 KG M^-1 S^-1. NAEFS/ENS PERCENTILES ALSO DEPICT
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS FOR IVT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS ON
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN NORTH TX, IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH FINALLY
LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL SHARPEN A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT
TO THE WEST, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AS WELL. THE
EVOLUTION OF STORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MONDAY NIGHT'S
CONVECTION FROM THE WEST, WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT MESSY DAY IN RELATION TO THE
SURFACE FEATURES AND WHAT RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT/TYPE EXISTS IN
WHAT LOCATION, IF ANY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK/MODERATE CAPPING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT
OF DESTABILIZATION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGARDLESS,
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN THE
INTENSITY/SEVERE THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY IS QUITE
LOW AT THIS POINT, BUT WE SHOULD HOPEFULLY SEE SOME BETTER
ALIGNMENT FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE NOW THAT WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE AVAILABLE PERIOD. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS,
WHICH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AS STORMS EXIT.
A HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY GIVEN THE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND HIGH COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN CONSIDERATION OF THE RECENT
RAINFALL. NO PARTICULAR AREA CAN CONFIDENTLY BE HIGHLIGHTED FOR
THE GREATEST FLOOD THREAT AT THIS POINT DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
WHERE THE LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR, BUT THIS WOULD
GENERALLY BE FAVORED TOWARDS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS COMPARED TO
NORTH TEXAS. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE MOST LIKELY
RANGE OF PRECIP AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.5" TO 1" (25TH PERCENTILE) TO
THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF AROUND 2 TO 3" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. AS THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE QUIETER, ALTHOUGH
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. LOW RAIN CHANCES EXIST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (MOSTLY FOR NORTH TEXAS), AS THE UPPER
LOW IS SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND
THE SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME 60 DEGREE MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY FOR NORTH
TEXAS.
GORDON
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN DEVELOP MAINLY TO OUR WEST BY EARLY MORNING
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED SHOWERS/STORMS TO SPREAD AS FAR
EAST AT THE MAJOR AIRPORTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW,
WE'LL INTRODUCE A VCSH IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO HAVE
LIGHTNING AND TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME DOWNBURST WIND
THREAT.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 56 75 61 73 / 0 0 40 80 100
WACO 76 54 75 64 78 / 0 5 60 80 100
PARIS 74 50 76 58 66 / 0 0 10 30 90
DENTON 75 52 75 59 71 / 0 0 40 80 100
MCKINNEY 76 53 75 60 69 / 0 0 30 70 100
DALLAS 77 57 76 62 73 / 0 0 40 70 100
TERRELL 75 53 75 61 73 / 0 0 30 60 100
CORSICANA 76 56 77 64 77 / 0 0 40 70 100
TEMPLE 77 55 74 65 81 / 0 5 70 80 100
MINERAL WELLS 77 54 70 59 77 / 0 5 60 90 100
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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