854
FXUS64 KFWD 042040
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS RETURN MONDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1204 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025/
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ENJOY THE SUNNY COOL AFTERNOON TODAY AS CHANGES ARE QUICKLY ON THE
WAY AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AT
THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME MORE EASTERLY IN
RESPONSE, BUT OVERALL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN DRY
AND RELATIVELY COOL. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME AND THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IN
RESPONSE, STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
SURGE NORTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST, WE'LL SEE A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS, BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF I-35. MODEL GUIDANCE IS PARTICULARLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND AS SUCH DEVELOPS QUITE A BIT OF
HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF NORTH
TEXAS BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MODELS CAN OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH
ACCURATE DEPICTIONS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE REGION, THERE IS CERTAINLY NOTHING PROHIBITIVE WITHIN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS WE'LL REMAIN
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH. A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WOULD LIKELY KEEP ANY LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND, BUT MODEST AMOUNTS OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE WHERE
RAIN/STORMS WOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE. THAT BEING SAID, WE'VE
RAISED POPS A BIT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.
MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS ACTIVITY WOULD SPREAD EAST
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS ACCOMPANIED BY A SEVERE THREAT. ANY
CLUSTERS OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY, STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AS A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE SPREADS OUT OF WEST TEXAS.
IN RESPONSE TO FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES, OUR WARM FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD, LIKELY APPROACHING THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY
MIDDAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, STRONG SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL
SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP, HOWEVER
THE MAIN QUESTION REGARDING TUESDAY'S SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE
COVERAGE OF EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WITHIN ONE OR MORE SEMI ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. IT'S A LITTLE UNCLEAR
WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL DISRUPT THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR
RENEWED VIGOROUS CONVECTION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. NONETHELESS, LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS, STEEP LAPSE
RATES, AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS THAT
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE, EVEN IN A MESSY
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH
OF I-20 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE FAVORED FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN
ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THERE IS A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
IN SOME LOCATIONS WHICH WOULD LIKELY NECESSITATE A FLOOD WATCH
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE ASSESSED A LITTLE LATER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TUESDAY
EVENING, BUT THE PARENT UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN SLOW TO PROGRESS
THROUGH THE PLAINS KEEPING A FETCH OF MOISTURE STREAMING BACK
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE WE'LL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LOWER RAIN
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW, WE'LL KEEP
POPS RELATIVELY LOW AWAITING A LITTLE MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY, BUT
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS (LOWER SEVERE THREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LINGER INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS
THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS CUT OFF FROM STRONGER FLOW TO THE
NORTH.
DUNN
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1204 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN DEVELOP MAINLY TO OUR WEST BY EARLY MORNING
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED SHOWERS/STORMS TO SPREAD AS FAR
EAST AT THE MAJOR AIRPORTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW,
WE'LL INTRODUCE A VCSH IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO HAVE
LIGHTNING AND TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME DOWNBURST WIND
THREAT.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 56 75 61 73 63 / 0 40 80 100 30
WACO 54 75 64 77 62 / 5 60 80 100 30
PARIS 50 76 58 66 61 / 0 10 30 100 60
DENTON 52 75 59 71 58 / 0 40 80 100 40
MCKINNEY 53 75 60 70 61 / 0 30 70 100 40
DALLAS 57 76 62 72 63 / 0 40 70 100 30
TERRELL 53 75 61 73 63 / 0 30 60 100 40
CORSICANA 56 77 64 78 66 / 0 40 70 100 40
TEMPLE 55 74 65 81 62 / 5 70 80 100 30
MINERAL WELLS 54 70 59 79 58 / 5 60 90 100 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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