717
FXUS64 KFWD 042252
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
552 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO MOST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF I-35.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
THIS EVENING'S FORECAST UPDATE ONLY CONSISTED OF REFINING POP
TRENDS THROUGH TOMORROW, AND RAISING RAIN CHANCES NEAR AND WEST OF
I-35 BASED ON RECENT SHORT-TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. BROAD ASCENT
SHOULD SUPPORT THE ARRIVAL OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAYTIME. SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT TO SUPPORT INFREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, PARTICULARLY BY
THE AFTERNOON, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER
OF THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST BELOW REMAINS ON TRACK.
-STALLEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ENJOY THE SUNNY COOL AFTERNOON TODAY AS CHANGES ARE QUICKLY ON THE
WAY AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AT
THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME MORE EASTERLY IN
RESPONSE, BUT OVERALL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN DRY
AND RELATIVELY COOL. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME AND THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IN
RESPONSE, STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
SURGE NORTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST, WE'LL SEE A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS, BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF I-35. MODEL GUIDANCE IS PARTICULARLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND AS SUCH DEVELOPS QUITE A BIT OF
HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF NORTH
TEXAS BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MODELS CAN OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH
ACCURATE DEPICTIONS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE REGION, THERE IS CERTAINLY NOTHING PROHIBITIVE WITHIN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS WE'LL REMAIN
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH. A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WOULD LIKELY KEEP ANY LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND, BUT MODEST AMOUNTS OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE WHERE
RAIN/STORMS WOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE. THAT BEING SAID, WE'VE
RAISED POPS A BIT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.
MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS ACTIVITY WOULD SPREAD EAST
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS ACCOMPANIED BY A SEVERE THREAT. ANY
CLUSTERS OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025/
/TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY, STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AS A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE SPREADS OUT OF WEST TEXAS.
IN RESPONSE TO FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES, OUR WARM FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD, LIKELY APPROACHING THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY
MIDDAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, STRONG SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL
SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP, HOWEVER
THE MAIN QUESTION REGARDING TUESDAY'S SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE
COVERAGE OF EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WITHIN ONE OR MORE SEMI ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. IT'S A LITTLE UNCLEAR
WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL DISRUPT THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR
RENEWED VIGOROUS CONVECTION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. NONETHELESS, LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS, STEEP LAPSE
RATES, AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS THAT
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE, EVEN IN A MESSY
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH
OF I-20 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE FAVORED FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN
ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THERE IS A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
IN SOME LOCATIONS WHICH WOULD LIKELY NECESSITATE A FLOOD WATCH
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE ASSESSED A LITTLE LATER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TUESDAY
EVENING, BUT THE PARENT UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN SLOW TO PROGRESS
THROUGH THE PLAINS KEEPING A FETCH OF MOISTURE STREAMING BACK
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE WE'LL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LOWER RAIN
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW, WE'LL KEEP
POPS RELATIVELY LOW AWAITING A LITTLE MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY, BUT
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS (LOWER SEVERE THREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LINGER INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS
THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS CUT OFF FROM STRONGER FLOW TO THE
NORTH.
DUNN
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAF/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH
CIRRUS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. BY TOMORROW MORNING, BROAD ASCENT
WILL ALLOW SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS, WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 17-19Z.
THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR INFREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES,
AND THIS CHANCE WILL BE GREATEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS STEEPEN. WE'LL INTRODUCE A
BRIEF VCTS NEAR THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS,
WITH A RETURN TO INTERMITTENT LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A STEADY LOWERING OF CLOUD BASES CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME AS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING ALSO OCCURS, AND
CIG HEIGHTS OF 5-7 KFT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY 00Z TOMORROW.
OUTSIDE OF ANY ERRATIC WINDS CAUSED BY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, A SOUTHEAST WIND AT 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 57 76 61 73 63 / 0 60 80 100 30
WACO 55 76 63 77 62 / 0 60 80 100 30
PARIS 50 76 59 66 61 / 0 10 30 100 60
DENTON 51 75 57 71 58 / 0 50 80 100 40
MCKINNEY 52 75 60 70 61 / 0 40 70 100 40
DALLAS 57 76 62 72 63 / 0 60 80 100 30
TERRELL 53 76 60 73 63 / 0 40 60 100 40
CORSICANA 56 79 63 78 66 / 0 50 70 100 40
TEMPLE 55 77 65 81 62 / 0 70 80 100 30
MINERAL WELLS 53 74 59 79 58 / 0 60 90 100 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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