954
FXUS64 KFWD 050655
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
155 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO MOST OF THE AREA ON
TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
A BUSY PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS FOR TONIGHT, WE REMAIN RAIN-FREE
WITH SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE
TRANS-PECOS REGION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MORNING
LOWS WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
BY SUNRISE, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE LINGERING
NEARBY BUT SHOULD HAVE SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW RETURN
FLOW TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A NOTABLE UPTICK IN MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE,
AIDED BY A 100–120 KT JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE NET RESULT WILL BE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S, WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT STRENGTHENS FROM WEST TO EAST. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, AND SPREADING EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS INITIAL ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE, AS IT WILL LARGELY BE
ELEVATED IN NATURE, DRIVEN BY STRONG UPGLIDE ATOP A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER.
LATER IN THE DAY, STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PROMOTE MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY
AXIS MAY REMAIN RATHER NARROW AND CONFINED TO AREAS IMMEDIATELY
NEAR THE DRYLINE, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC ASCENT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LARGER CLUSTERS OR A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS.
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE BIG COUNTRY AND
WESTERN NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND A GRADUALLY LIFTING WARM
FRONT WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE AND CONTINUE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER,
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND A CONTINUED LACK OF SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY. THAT SAID, ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE
MARKEDLY TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BENEATH
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE MUCAPE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ELONGATED, CURVED HODOGRAPHS BENEATH THE
STRENGTHENING LLJ, SUGGESTING A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH ANY ELEVATED CELLS OR CLUSTERS
THAT PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
BY TOMORROW MORNING, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION BENEATH
STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT, COINCIDING WITH ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. PWAT VALUES OF 1.3–1.8" WILL ALSO
PLACE THE REGION ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF LOCAL SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ADDITION TO A CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH STORM
MODE AND SEVERITY LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF EARLY-DAY
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. IF STORMS PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COULD LIMIT
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER,
THE LIFTING WARM FRONT SHOULD ALLOW THE WEAKLY CAPPED, MOIST WARM
SECTOR TO BUILD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MIDDAY. IF
ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. IN THIS
SCENARIO, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS (E.G., OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING
CONVECTION OR WARM FRONT) LOCALLY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
LIFT.
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, CONVECTION WOULD REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT A
CONTINUED HAIL THREAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE
WEATHER, FLOOD CONCERNS MAY INCREASE TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF IS FOCUSED. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL MOST LIKELY RANGE FROM 1–3" ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTIVE TRAINING OCCURS.
THE FLOOD RISK IS COMPOUNDED BY RECENT RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS,
WHICH WILL LOWER THE THRESHOLD FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
OTHERWISE, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING OF
CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A SWIFT
END TO THIS PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER.
12
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025/
/TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TUESDAY
EVENING, BUT THE PARENT UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN SLOW TO PROGRESS
THROUGH THE PLAINS KEEPING A FETCH OF MOISTURE STREAMING BACK
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE WE'LL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LOWER RAIN
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW, WE'LL KEEP
POPS RELATIVELY LOW AWAITING A LITTLE MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY, BUT
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS (LOWER SEVERE THREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LINGER INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS
THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS CUT OFF FROM STRONGER FLOW TO THE
NORTH.
DUNN
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH CLOUD COVER LIMITED TO THE REMNANTS
OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER WEST TEXAS EARLIER. SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD TOWARDS D10 LATER THIS MORNING, REACHING WACO AROUND 16Z
AND THE METROPLEX TERMINALS CLOSER TO 19Z. THE MAIN WINDOW IN
WHICH WE EXPECT INFREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING (22-02Z) AMID
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACTS TO
THE TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TSRA GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SCATTERED COVERAGE AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. INTERMITTENT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE, CLOUD BASES WILL STEADILY
LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WITH MVFR CIGS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST AFTER 00Z. IFR CIGS AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 12Z TUESDAY AND WILL BE INTRODUCED TO THE TAFS IN
LATER UPDATES.
12
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 62 72 63 80 / 40 70 100 20 10
WACO 75 63 77 62 79 / 60 70 100 20 20
PARIS 75 59 65 61 77 / 5 30 100 50 20
DENTON 74 57 70 58 79 / 30 70 100 20 10
MCKINNEY 75 60 69 61 78 / 20 60 100 30 10
DALLAS 77 62 72 63 81 / 40 70 100 20 10
TERRELL 76 60 72 62 79 / 20 50 100 30 20
CORSICANA 78 64 75 65 81 / 40 60 100 30 20
TEMPLE 75 64 80 62 82 / 70 70 100 20 30
MINERAL WELLS 72 60 78 58 81 / 60 80 100 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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