361
FXUS64 KFWD 051713
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1213 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE MAINLY A
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL TX ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD
OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A POTENT BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM MOIST
ADVECTION HAS YIELDED AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO AFTER AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY DECREASE THIS EVENING.
FARTHER TO THE WEST, WE'LL SEE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
WEST TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD EAST TONIGHT AND APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL TX WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE'S A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
NORTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT AS A MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE IS LIKELY
TO BE ONGOING. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY INHIBIT ITS NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH OUTFLOW/COLD POOL INTERACTIONS, BUT A GENERAL
NORTHWARD TRANSITION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH ANY ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES, HOWEVER, AS WE GO THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. STRONG SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL TURNING OF THE WIND PROFILE WILL
SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND AN INCREASING TORNADO POTENTIAL.
THIS THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL TX TOWARD
THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON, STAYING GENERALLY EAST OF
I-35. COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SCATTERED THOUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT, ANY STORMS THAT ARE ONGOING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ALL MODES
OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. THIS COULD INCLUDE
EMBEDDED TORNADOES WITHIN CLUSTERS OF STORMS OUTSIDE OF ANY
DISCRETE ACTIVITY. AREAS NORTH OF I-20 AND CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER
WOULD GENERALLY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A HAIL THREAT. POPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR 100% FOR ALL AREAS TOMORROW WITH A RAPID ENDING OF THE
PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER DARK.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025/
/TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND/
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN STICKING AROUND, FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY'S ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING EAST BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN/STORM CHANCES ACROSS EAST TEXAS, BUT IT
SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT OVERALL IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER, MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER. FOR WEDNESDAY, LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS (20-40%) AND ALONG THE RED RIVER (20%), BUT MOST
AREAS WILL STAY DRY. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PLENTY OF
REMAINING MOISTURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH, TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LOW, BUT THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES REMAINING
OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS ARE NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THERE MAY ALSO BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO IF
SOMETHING DEVELOPS. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REMAINING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION, THE RED RIVER ALSO HAVE LINGERING POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
OK/KS.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE RED RIVER AND FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS WILL EXIST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (~30-50% BOTH DAYS),
BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN THE ALMOST ENTIRELY CUTOFF,
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW AND SHUNTED FURTHER EASTWARD. REGARDLESS, ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO END THE WEEK AS EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES ROUND THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIFT OVERHEAD PARTICULARLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN FRIDAY.
BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY, WITH MORE NOTABLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH AS WELL. WHILE NOT IMPRESSIVE BY
ANY MEANS, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DURING THIS TIME AS THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
APART FROM THE LINGERING RAIN CHANCES, THE SLOW TRANSITION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES SLOW TO MODERATE ACROSS THE
REGION. DFW'S NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE MAY 7TH-11TH IS 81-82 DEGREES,
AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR HIGHS TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW THAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 80S. FOR WACO, THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 83-84
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, AND THE FORECAST HAS ACT SIMILARLY AROUND
5 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER DURING THIS TIME. NOT THE MOST RIVETING
TIDBIT OF INFORMATION, BUT WE WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET SINCE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
MONTH, AND SUMMER WILL ALSO BE HERE BEFORE WE KNOW IT.
GORDON
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ENTERING THE D10 AIRSPACE NOW AND
WILL LIKELY TRACK OVER THE MAJOR AIRPORTS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
ACTIVITY STARTS TO TAPER OFF. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED
(FALLING OUT OF CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 5-10 KFT) AND WILL POSE A
GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL THREAT ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
VFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ALTHOUGH VIS WILL LIKELY DROP
IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
WE'LL PREVAIL -TSRA FOR THIS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TEMPO
FOR LOWER VIS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH REDUCTIONS IN CIGS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE 8-10Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
LATER TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND WILL APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE HIGH AGAIN WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 73 62 74 61 80 / 80 40 100 10 10
WACO 74 63 79 62 79 / 80 60 100 5 20
PARIS 75 58 67 60 77 / 20 20 100 40 20
DENTON 71 59 69 57 79 / 80 40 100 20 10
MCKINNEY 74 60 71 59 78 / 60 30 100 20 10
DALLAS 74 63 75 62 81 / 80 40 100 10 10
TERRELL 73 61 73 61 79 / 70 40 100 20 20
CORSICANA 74 63 76 64 81 / 80 60 100 10 20
TEMPLE 73 62 82 62 82 / 80 60 100 10 30
MINERAL WELLS 69 60 76 57 81 / 100 60 100 5 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-134-135-146>148-161-162-175.
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