794
FXUS64 KFWD 051912
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
212 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1213 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025/
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE MAINLY A
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL TX ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD
OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A POTENT BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM MOIST
ADVECTION HAS YIELDED AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO AFTER AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY DECREASE THIS EVENING.
FARTHER TO THE WEST, WE'LL SEE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
WEST TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD EAST TONIGHT AND APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL TX WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE'S A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
NORTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT AS A MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE IS LIKELY
TO BE ONGOING. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY INHIBIT ITS NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH OUTFLOW/COLD POOL INTERACTIONS, BUT A GENERAL
NORTHWARD TRANSITION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH ANY ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES, HOWEVER, AS WE GO THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. STRONG SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL TURNING OF THE WIND PROFILE WILL
SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND AN INCREASING TORNADO POTENTIAL.
THIS THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL TX TOWARD
THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON, STAYING GENERALLY EAST OF
I-35. COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SCATTERED THOUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT, ANY STORMS THAT ARE ONGOING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ALL MODES
OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. THIS COULD INCLUDE
EMBEDDED TORNADOES WITHIN CLUSTERS OF STORMS OUTSIDE OF ANY
DISCRETE ACTIVITY. AREAS NORTH OF I-20 AND CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER
WOULD GENERALLY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A HAIL THREAT. POPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR 100% FOR ALL AREAS TOMORROW WITH A RAPID ENDING OF THE
PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER DARK.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WITH
TIME, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS
TO MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET IN THE WAKE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY, BUT RENEWED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX. MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF OUR AREA, BUT WE'LL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND SHOULD RESULT IN AN
UPTICK IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. ACTIVITY SHOULD PEAK IN
COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AS WE DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IT'S A LITTLE UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT WE'LL SEE ANY ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS, BUT THE OVERALL PARAMETER SPACE AND WIND FIELDS
DON'T SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT THREAT. A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY WHERE AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. WE'LL KEEP POPS AROUND
30-40% FOR BOTH DAYS.
OUR UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY,
BUT WE'LL STILL HANG ON TO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE'LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME GIVEN A LACK OF
ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A WEEK OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DUNN
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1213 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025/
/18Z TAFS/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ENTERING THE D10 AIRSPACE NOW AND
WILL LIKELY TRACK OVER THE MAJOR AIRPORTS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
ACTIVITY STARTS TO TAPER OFF. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED
(FALLING OUT OF CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 5-10 KFT) AND WILL POSE A
GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL THREAT ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
VFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ALTHOUGH VIS WILL LIKELY DROP
IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
WE'LL PREVAIL -TSRA FOR THIS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TEMPO
FOR LOWER VIS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH REDUCTIONS IN CIGS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE 8-10Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
LATER TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND WILL APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE HIGH AGAIN WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 62 74 61 80 60 / 40 100 10 10 40
WACO 63 79 62 80 61 / 60 100 5 20 30
PARIS 58 67 60 77 60 / 20 100 40 10 40
DENTON 59 69 57 79 55 / 40 100 20 10 40
MCKINNEY 60 71 59 78 59 / 30 100 20 10 40
DALLAS 63 75 62 80 62 / 40 100 10 10 30
TERRELL 61 73 61 80 60 / 40 100 20 10 30
CORSICANA 63 76 64 83 63 / 60 100 10 20 30
TEMPLE 62 82 62 84 62 / 60 100 10 20 30
MINERAL WELLS 60 76 57 80 56 / 60 100 5 10 40
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-134-135-146>148-161-162-175.
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