643
FXUS64 KFWD 060455
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1155 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR-TERM AS AN UPPER LOW
REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE EAST FLANK OF THE LOW WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. PEAK COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE RUSH
HOUR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE
STRONGEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
TAKE PLACE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
PARTICULARLY WHERE ANY TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCUR, AND A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT
THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO
3 INCH RANGE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL SHIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY LIMITING
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN FEW ROWS OF COUNTIES.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BOTH BE A POSSIBILITY IN THESE
SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS ZONES. A RELATIVELY COOL, STABLE SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION, PRECLUDING
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. THAT BEING SAID, AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED "MOST UNSTABLE" CAPE WILL STILL SUPPORT THE OCCASIONAL
STORM WITH 1+ INCH DIAMETER HAIL, SO A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL STILL EXIST IN THE COOL SECTOR.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH EAST INTO EAST TEXAS/LOUISIANA LATE
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT. RECENT RAIN AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPROACHING ZERO WILL
SUPPORT A COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG FORMATION BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.
30
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 212 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025/
/WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WITH
TIME, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS
TO MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET IN THE WAKE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY, BUT RENEWED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX. MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF OUR AREA, BUT WE'LL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND SHOULD RESULT IN AN
UPTICK IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. ACTIVITY SHOULD PEAK IN
COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AS WE DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IT'S A LITTLE UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT WE'LL SEE ANY ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS, BUT THE OVERALL PARAMETER SPACE AND WIND FIELDS
DON'T SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT THREAT. A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY WHERE AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. WE'LL KEEP POPS AROUND
30-40% FOR BOTH DAYS.
OUR UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY,
BUT WE'LL STILL HANG ON TO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE'LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME GIVEN A LACK OF
ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A WEEK OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DUNN
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 09Z IN THE METROPLEX,
11Z AT WACO, INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT
ALL LOCATIONS BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST AROUND 21Z. THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE & HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER AT ALL TAF SITES IS
13Z TO 17Z, WHICH IS WHEN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TS WILL EXIST.
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR AROUND THE TIME VCTS BEGINS 09-11Z. IFR
WILL LIKELY PERSIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER
TS COME TO AN END. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS T/TD SPREADS
APPROACH ZERO.
30
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER SUBMITTED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 56 71 62 80 60 / 70 90 20 10 40
WACO 58 77 62 80 61 / 70 90 10 20 30
PARIS 55 65 60 77 60 / 30 100 50 10 40
DENTON 55 69 57 79 55 / 70 90 20 10 40
MCKINNEY 57 67 60 78 59 / 60 90 30 10 40
DALLAS 55 71 62 80 62 / 60 90 20 10 30
TERRELL 55 70 62 80 60 / 50 90 30 10 30
CORSICANA 58 75 65 83 63 / 60 90 20 20 30
TEMPLE 59 81 62 84 62 / 70 90 10 20 30
MINERAL WELLS 56 76 57 80 56 / 80 90 10 10 40
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-134-135-146>148-161-162-175.
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