317
FXUS64 KFWD 060753
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
253 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SOME STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE AND MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1155 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025/
/THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR-TERM AS AN UPPER LOW
REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE EAST FLANK OF THE LOW WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. PEAK COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE RUSH
HOUR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE
STRONGEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
TAKE PLACE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
PARTICULARLY WHERE ANY TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCUR, AND A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT
THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO
3 INCH RANGE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL SHIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY LIMITING
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN FEW ROWS OF COUNTIES.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BOTH BE A POSSIBILITY IN THESE
SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS ZONES. A RELATIVELY COOL, STABLE SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION, PRECLUDING
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. THAT BEING SAID, AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED "MOST UNSTABLE" CAPE WILL STILL SUPPORT THE OCCASIONAL
STORM WITH 1+ INCH DIAMETER HAIL, SO A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL STILL EXIST IN THE COOL SECTOR.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH EAST INTO EAST TEXAS/LOUISIANA LATE
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT. RECENT RAIN AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPROACHING ZERO WILL
SUPPORT A COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG FORMATION BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.
30
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/
THOUGH THE PREVAILING SYNOPTIC PATTERN (OMEGA BLOCK) IS
COLLAPSING, THE SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE WITH US
FOR A WHILE AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND BECOMES CUTOFF
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION-FREE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH, WITH
THE ONLY ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TIED TO THE STALLING FRONT
DRAPED WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, PERIPHERALLY INFLUENCED
BY THE NEARBY MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW, COULD YIELD LINGERING ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE/PERTURBATION
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS
SPREADING DOWN TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH
MODELS USUALLY HAVE NOTORIOUSLY POOR HANDLING OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS CUTOFF FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW, THE CURRENT
SIGNAL AMONGST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS THAT THE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE OZARKS BY EARLY THURSDAY TRANSITIONING (BRIEFLY) BACK
INTO AN OPEN TROUGH. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SHALLOW/RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY
PROVIDE MODEST DESTABILIZATION BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING BEFORE DIMINISHING
AS INSTABILITY WANES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD REMAINS LOW DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.
BY LATE FRIDAY, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN BACK
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AIDED BY A
SECONDARY UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
PARENT SYSTEM. THOUGH WE WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WE WILL BE LOCATED ON THE
SUBSIDENT FLANK, WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WELL TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID MAY, A DETAIL I THINK NONE OF US WILL BE
COMPLAINING ABOUT!
12
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1155 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025/
/06Z TAFS/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 09Z IN THE METROPLEX,
11Z AT WACO, INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT
ALL LOCATIONS BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST AROUND 21Z. THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE & HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER AT ALL TAF SITES IS
13Z TO 17Z, WHICH IS WHEN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TS WILL EXIST.
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR AROUND THE TIME VCTS BEGINS 09-11Z. IFR
WILL LIKELY PERSIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER
TS COME TO AN END. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS T/TD SPREADS
APPROACH ZERO.
30
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER SUBMITTED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 71 62 79 61 77 / 90 20 10 20 30
WACO 77 62 81 62 77 / 90 10 10 10 20
PARIS 65 60 76 58 74 / 100 50 10 20 40
DENTON 69 57 77 56 75 / 90 20 10 30 30
MCKINNEY 67 60 77 59 75 / 90 30 10 20 30
DALLAS 71 62 80 61 77 / 90 20 10 20 30
TERRELL 70 62 79 61 77 / 90 30 10 20 30
CORSICANA 75 65 81 63 79 / 90 20 10 20 30
TEMPLE 81 62 83 63 80 / 90 10 20 10 20
MINERAL WELLS 76 57 80 56 77 / 90 10 10 20 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-134-135-146>148-161-162-175.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page