871
FXUS64 KFWD 061102
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SOME STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE AND MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BIG COUNTRY WILL CONTAIN A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AS THEY ENTER THE WESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THUS FAR, STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING
FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY (1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE)
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES TO SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT, AND A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM MINERAL WELLS TO TEMPLE UNTIL 10 AM. OTHERWISE, A DAY OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA. STORMS WILL
EXIT INTO EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AROUND SUNSET.
30
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR-TERM AS AN UPPER LOW
REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE EAST FLANK OF THE LOW WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. PEAK COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE RUSH
HOUR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE
STRONGEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
TAKE PLACE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
PARTICULARLY WHERE ANY TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCUR, AND A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT
THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO
3 INCH RANGE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL SHIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY LIMITING
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN FEW ROWS OF COUNTIES.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BOTH BE A POSSIBILITY IN THESE
SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS ZONES. A RELATIVELY COOL, STABLE SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION, PRECLUDING
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. THAT BEING SAID, AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED "MOST UNSTABLE" CAPE WILL STILL SUPPORT THE OCCASIONAL
STORM WITH 1+ INCH DIAMETER HAIL, SO A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL STILL EXIST IN THE COOL SECTOR.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH EAST INTO EAST TEXAS/LOUISIANA LATE
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT. RECENT RAIN AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPROACHING ZERO WILL
SUPPORT A COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG FORMATION BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.
30
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 253 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025/
/WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/
THOUGH THE PREVAILING SYNOPTIC PATTERN (OMEGA BLOCK) IS
COLLAPSING, THE SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE WITH US
FOR A WHILE AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND BECOMES CUTOFF
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION-FREE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH, WITH
THE ONLY ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TIED TO THE STALLING FRONT
DRAPED WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, PERIPHERALLY INFLUENCED
BY THE NEARBY MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW, COULD YIELD LINGERING ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE/PERTURBATION
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS
SPREADING DOWN TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH
MODELS USUALLY HAVE NOTORIOUSLY POOR HANDLING OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS CUTOFF FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW, THE CURRENT
SIGNAL AMONGST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS THAT THE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE OZARKS BY EARLY THURSDAY TRANSITIONING (BRIEFLY) BACK
INTO AN OPEN TROUGH. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SHALLOW/RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY
PROVIDE MODEST DESTABILIZATION BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING BEFORE DIMINISHING
AS INSTABILITY WANES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD REMAINS LOW DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.
BY LATE FRIDAY, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN BACK
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AIDED BY A
SECONDARY UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
PARENT SYSTEM. THOUGH WE WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WE WILL BE LOCATED ON THE
SUBSIDENT FLANK, WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WELL TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID MAY, A DETAIL I THINK NONE OF US WILL BE
COMPLAINING ABOUT!
12
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES, WITH PEAK COVERAGE (AND HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR DIRECT IMPACTS) BEING IN THE 14Z TO 18Z TIME
FRAME. PRECIPITATION WILL END BY 21Z, AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
COMBINATION OF LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EAST WINDS TODAY WILL DECREASE IN SPEED WHILE BACKING
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
30
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER SUBMITTED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 71 62 79 61 77 / 90 20 10 20 30
WACO 77 62 81 62 77 / 90 10 10 10 20
PARIS 65 60 76 58 74 / 100 50 10 20 40
DENTON 69 57 77 56 75 / 90 20 10 30 30
MCKINNEY 67 60 77 59 75 / 90 30 10 20 30
DALLAS 71 62 80 61 77 / 90 20 10 20 30
TERRELL 70 62 79 61 77 / 90 30 10 20 30
CORSICANA 75 65 81 63 79 / 90 20 10 20 30
TEMPLE 81 62 83 63 80 / 90 10 20 10 20
MINERAL WELLS 76 57 80 56 77 / 90 10 10 20 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-
134-135-146>148-161-162-175.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ115-116-129-130-141>143-156>158.
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