025
FXUS64 KFWD 061836
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
136 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN.
- AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WELL DEFINED LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING ACROSS EAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON, EXITING OUR AREA BY 4-5PM. THE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN
END AS THE LINE EXIT OUR REGION WITH QUIET BUT CLOUDY WEATHER
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY.
FOR TONIGHT, GIVEN THE LIGHT EASTERLY/NORTHERLY WIND EXPECTED,
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY
SEE DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING.
THE CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUR BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND LOW 80S IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
SANCHEZ
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 253 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025/
/WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/
THOUGH THE PREVAILING SYNOPTIC PATTERN (OMEGA BLOCK) IS
COLLAPSING, THE SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE WITH US
FOR A WHILE AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND BECOMES CUTOFF
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION-FREE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH, WITH
THE ONLY ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TIED TO THE STALLING FRONT
DRAPED WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, PERIPHERALLY INFLUENCED
BY THE NEARBY MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW, COULD YIELD LINGERING ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE/PERTURBATION
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS
SPREADING DOWN TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH
MODELS USUALLY HAVE NOTORIOUSLY POOR HANDLING OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS CUTOFF FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW, THE CURRENT
SIGNAL AMONGST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS THAT THE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE OZARKS BY EARLY THURSDAY TRANSITIONING (BRIEFLY) BACK
INTO AN OPEN TROUGH. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SHALLOW/RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY
PROVIDE MODEST DESTABILIZATION BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING BEFORE DIMINISHING
AS INSTABILITY WANES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD REMAINS LOW DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.
BY LATE FRIDAY, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN BACK
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AIDED BY A
SECONDARY UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
PARENT SYSTEM. THOUGH WE WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WE WILL BE LOCATED ON THE
SUBSIDENT FLANK, WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WELL TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID MAY, A DETAIL I THINK NONE OF US WILL BE
COMPLAINING ABOUT!
12
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...STORMS MOVING EAST, LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE.
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON, THE
EASTERN ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED AT LEAST
THROUGH 21-22Z. OTHERWISE, LOW CEILINGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO LIFR
AFTER 07Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL FINALLY SEE AN IMPROVEMENT AROUND 19-20Z
TOMORROW AS CLOUDS LIFT/SCATTER OUT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST BELOW 10 KTS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
SANCHEZ
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 62 78 59 77 58 / 10 5 20 30 10
WACO 62 80 61 77 58 / 10 10 10 20 5
PARIS 60 76 58 74 57 / 40 10 30 40 20
DENTON 57 77 54 75 54 / 10 5 20 30 10
MCKINNEY 60 77 57 75 56 / 20 5 20 30 10
DALLAS 63 79 61 77 60 / 10 5 20 30 10
TERRELL 60 78 59 77 57 / 20 5 20 30 10
CORSICANA 64 80 62 79 59 / 20 10 10 30 5
TEMPLE 62 82 61 80 57 / 10 10 10 20 5
MINERAL WELLS 58 79 54 77 54 / 5 5 10 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ093>095-104>107-
119>123-134-135-146>148-161-162-175.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
TXZ107-122-123-135-147-148-161.
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ162-174-175.
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