487
FXUS64 KFWD 061941
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
241 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN.
- AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 136 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025/
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WELL DEFINED LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING ACROSS EAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON, EXITING OUR AREA BY 4-5PM. THE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN
END AS THE LINE EXIT OUR REGION WITH QUIET BUT CLOUDY WEATHER
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY.
FOR TONIGHT, GIVEN THE LIGHT EASTERLY/NORTHERLY WIND EXPECTED,
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY
SEE DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING.
THE CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUR BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND LOW 80S IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
SANCHEZ
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/THURSDAY ONWARD/
OVERALL, THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET WITH ONLY SOME
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY-SATURDAY AND DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD AND BRING AT LEAST SOME WEAK
ASCENT ACROSS OUR REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
ON THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES OUR AREA ON FRIDAY,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS. MOISTURE AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED AND SHOULD
KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LOW.
BEYOND THIS, DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY NEXT TUESDAY.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/ISSUED 136 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025/
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...STORMS MOVING EAST, LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE.
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON, THE
EASTERN ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED AT LEAST
THROUGH 21-22Z. OTHERWISE, LOW CEILINGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO LIFR
AFTER 07Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL FINALLY SEE AN IMPROVEMENT AROUND 19-20Z
TOMORROW AS CLOUDS LIFT/SCATTER OUT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST BELOW 10 KTS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
SANCHEZ
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 62 78 59 77 58 / 10 5 20 10 5
WACO 62 80 61 78 58 / 10 10 10 10 5
PARIS 60 76 58 75 57 / 40 10 30 30 10
DENTON 57 77 54 75 54 / 10 5 20 10 5
MCKINNEY 60 77 57 75 56 / 20 5 20 20 10
DALLAS 63 79 61 77 60 / 10 5 20 20 5
TERRELL 60 78 59 77 57 / 20 5 20 20 10
CORSICANA 64 80 62 80 59 / 20 10 10 20 10
TEMPLE 62 82 61 81 58 / 10 10 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 58 79 54 77 54 / 5 5 10 10 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ093>095-104>107-
119>123-134-135-146>148-161-162-175.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
TXZ107-122-123-135-147-148-161.
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ162-174-175.
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