423
FXUS64 KFWD 070259
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
959 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (15-20%) FOR A COUPLE STRONG STORMS
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 725 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025/
/THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY/
..TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL STALL
OUT NEAR THE GULF COAST TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL SUPPORT FOG
AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE FIRST
PATCHES OF FOG MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT, LASTING AS LATE
AS 9AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETWEEN 3AM AND 8AM, AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR 1/4 MILE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, PRIMARILY
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS
THE RED RIVER, AS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER MAY MINIMIZE RADIATIVE
COOLING ENOUGH TO KEEP IT PATCHY AT BEST. REGARDLESS, FOG AND
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY NOON ON WEDNESDAY.
..WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
SPITE OF OUR PROXIMITY TO THE LOW CENTER, MINIMAL PVA AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY CONVEYER BELT WILL ACT
TO MINIMIZE ANY RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW. THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE
(15 TO 20 PERCENT) FOR A COUPLE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG A
SOMEWHAT DILUTE DRYLINE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. THESE STORMS, SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP, WOULD MOST LIKELY BE AFTER 4 PM DURING PEAK HEATING.
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7 C/KM WILL RESULT IN
MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. AS SUCH, ANY STORM THAT
IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL POSE A LOW RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL
CAMS SUGGEST FURTHER ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OUTFLOW FROM GULF
COAST STORMS INTERACTS WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR FROM
THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
DARRAH
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 241 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025/
/THURSDAY ONWARD/
OVERALL, THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET WITH ONLY SOME
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY-SATURDAY AND DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD AND BRING AT LEAST SOME WEAK
ASCENT ACROSS OUR REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
ON THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES OUR AREA ON FRIDAY,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS. MOISTURE AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED AND SHOULD
KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LOW.
BEYOND THIS, DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY NEXT TUESDAY.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
UPDATE:
VERY LOCALIZED FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN TARRANT/DALLAS
COUNTIES (KGRK), SO HAVE TEMPORARILY EXCLUDED THE LIFR TEMPO GROUP
FOR 09-13Z TO INSTEAD INCLUDE A 03-05Z TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR
PERIODIC VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT THE KGRK TERMINAL DOWN TO 2SM
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SEE SURROUNDING TAFS (AFW, FTW, DFW, OR
DAL) FOR DETAILS ON LIFR AT GRK BETWEEN 09-13Z. THIS TEMPO GROUP WILL
BE BROUGHT BACK INTO THE GRK TAF IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.
DARRAH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
FOG AND IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION (ALL
TAF SITES) BY 06Z WED. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES 1/4
TO 1/2 SM WILL ALSO DEVELOP, BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SUPPORT PREVAILING THESE CONDITIONS. AS SUCH, HAVE MAINTAINED A
TEMPO GROUP IN TAFS FOR MOST LIKELY TIME TO SEE LIFR VIS AND CIGS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT START AND END TIMES, WITH A
LOW CHANCE (30 TO 40%) FOR LIFR CIGS AND/OR VIS WITHIN 2 HOURS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS. CLEARING TO VFR IS
EXPECTED BY 19Z, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20%) MVFR CIGS MAY
LINGER AN EXTRA HOUR OR TWO.
DARRAH
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 61 78 60 77 58 / 5 20 20 10 5
WACO 63 79 61 78 58 / 0 20 20 10 5
PARIS 61 73 59 75 57 / 20 20 30 30 10
DENTON 60 76 55 75 54 / 10 20 20 10 5
MCKINNEY 60 75 58 75 56 / 10 20 30 20 10
DALLAS 62 79 61 77 60 / 5 20 20 20 5
TERRELL 62 75 60 77 57 / 10 20 30 20 10
CORSICANA 63 78 63 80 59 / 5 20 30 20 10
TEMPLE 63 81 62 81 58 / 0 20 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 59 77 55 77 54 / 5 20 10 10 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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