036
FXUS64 KFWD 070532
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1232 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (15-20%) FOR A COUPLE STRONG STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH THURSDAY/
TUESDAY'S CONVECTION AND THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE ALL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST AND AWAY FROM NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT, LEAVING
QUIET CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THOUGH A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS, THE PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT
IS QUITE WEAK, WITH NORTH WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 MPH. WIDESPREAD
RAIN, LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY NEAR ZERO IS A
RECIPE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
DECK OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE REGION MAY
WORK AGAINST FOG FORMATION, BUT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA (GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO
DALLAS TO CENTERVILLE) WILL LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WILL MONITOR METAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN ANTICIPATION OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT SOME POINT.
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, GIVING WAY
TO A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. WITH AN
UPPER LOW STILL POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THERE REMAINS
A LOW-END CHANCE THAT WE WILL DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WOULD BE
LOW IF/WHEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION TAKES PLACE, BUT SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORM WHICH MAY DEVELOP. CONVECTION
WOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM WEST TEXAS TO
SOUTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL GENERATE A ROUND OF SCATTERED
STORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY WORK
THEIR WAY NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, WARRANTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY. ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER, WHERE MORE 20 POPS
WILL BE IN PLACE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN-FREE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
30
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 241 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025/
/THURSDAY ONWARD/
OVERALL, THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET WITH ONLY SOME
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY-SATURDAY AND DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD AND BRING AT LEAST SOME WEAK
ASCENT ACROSS OUR REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
ON THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES OUR AREA ON FRIDAY,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS. MOISTURE AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED AND SHOULD
KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LOW.
BEYOND THIS, DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY NEXT TUESDAY.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
A COMBINATION OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING TUESDAY'S RAIN. CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DETERIORATED AT
KACT AND SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT IN THE DFW METROPLEX 07-09Z. DENSE FOG
IS A POSSIBILITY (AND HAS ALREADY AFFECTED KACT DURING THE PAST
HOUR), ESPECIALLY IN THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN RETURN TO THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING FRONTAL PUSH ARRIVES.
30
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 60 80 60 77 58 / 5 20 10 20 5
WACO 58 81 61 79 58 / 0 20 10 20 5
PARIS 58 76 58 76 57 / 20 20 20 20 10
DENTON 59 78 55 75 54 / 10 20 10 20 5
MCKINNEY 59 78 57 76 56 / 10 20 10 20 10
DALLAS 60 81 61 79 60 / 5 20 10 20 5
TERRELL 58 79 60 78 57 / 10 20 10 20 10
CORSICANA 60 81 62 80 59 / 5 20 10 20 10
TEMPLE 59 83 61 81 58 / 0 20 20 20 10
MINERAL WELLS 57 80 56 77 54 / 5 20 5 20 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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