377
FXUS64 KFWD 071117
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
617 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (15-20%) FOR A COUPLE STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
DENSE FOG HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTHWEST WITH TIME, AND AT LEAST ONE
MORE ADJUSTMENT TO THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE NEEDED PRIOR TO ITS
END TIME OF 10 AM. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE MORNING, FOLLOWED
BY AN OVERALL NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
EACH OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
MOST LOCATIONS, HOWEVER, SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
30
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH THURSDAY/
TUESDAY'S CONVECTION AND THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE ALL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST AND AWAY FROM NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT, LEAVING
QUIET CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THOUGH A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS, THE PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT
IS QUITE WEAK, WITH NORTH WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 MPH. WIDESPREAD
RAIN, LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY NEAR ZERO IS A
RECIPE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
DECK OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE REGION MAY
WORK AGAINST FOG FORMATION, BUT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA (GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO
DALLAS TO CENTERVILLE) WILL LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WILL MONITOR METAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN ANTICIPATION OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT SOME POINT.
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, GIVING WAY
TO A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. WITH AN
UPPER LOW STILL POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THERE REMAINS
A LOW-END CHANCE THAT WE WILL DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WOULD BE
LOW IF/WHEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION TAKES PLACE, BUT SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORM WHICH MAY DEVELOP. CONVECTION
WOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM WEST TEXAS TO
SOUTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL GENERATE A ROUND OF SCATTERED
STORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY WORK
THEIR WAY NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, WARRANTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY. ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER, WHERE MORE 20 POPS
WILL BE IN PLACE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN-FREE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
30
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 244 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025/
/THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH, BLOCKED BY A RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WILL STILL BE DRIFTING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A
WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE ELONGATING TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ALLOWING FOR A FEW MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN THE
REGION OF GREATEST ASCENT. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED
WITH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
PROVIDE MODEST DESTABILIZATION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND JUST OUR
EAST TEXAS COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. MEAGER INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR
WILL PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT, BUT ISOLATED
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP, IT WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET.
THE MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING EXACTLY WHERE
CUTOFF, CLOSED UPPER LOWS WILL DRIFT AND MEANDER, BUT THE
PREVAILING SIGNAL IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY AGAIN
TRANSITION INTO A CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. IN THIS SCENARIO,
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT FLANK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, KEEPING THE AREA RAIN-FREE ON SUNDAY. STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD RAIN-FREE WITH
TEMPERATURES NOTABLY CLIMBING WELL ABOVE-NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO THE 6-14 DAY PERIOD, THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THERE IS A 33-50% CHANCE OF ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF MAY BRINGING A SWIFT END
TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF COOL AND RAINY DAYS.
12
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
LOW VISIBILITIES HAVE TRANSITIONED TO LOW CEILINGS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN THE DFW METROPLEX, AND THESE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL IMPROVE 16-18Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH TONIGHT,
WITH VELOCITIES REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
30
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 60 77 58 73 / 20 10 20 5 30
WACO 81 61 79 58 75 / 20 10 20 5 20
PARIS 76 58 76 57 72 / 20 20 20 5 50
DENTON 78 55 75 54 72 / 20 10 20 5 30
MCKINNEY 78 57 76 56 72 / 20 10 20 5 30
DALLAS 81 61 79 59 74 / 20 10 20 5 30
TERRELL 79 60 78 57 73 / 20 10 20 5 30
CORSICANA 81 62 80 60 76 / 20 10 20 5 20
TEMPLE 83 61 81 58 78 / 20 20 20 5 10
MINERAL WELLS 80 56 77 54 74 / 20 5 20 5 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091-
100>102-115>118-129>134-141-143>147-157-159>161.
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