742
FXUS64 KFWD 071901
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
201 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF STORMS (10%).
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 123 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025/
/THROUGH THURSDAY/
A QUIET AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR US AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SCATTER OUT AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S/80S. ANY DECENT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS OUR REGION. TO OUR SOUTH, A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST KEEPING
THE BEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. NO OTHER HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES, BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BEST FORCING WILL AGAIN REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAVELS ACROSS SOUTHERN
TEXAS NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY. IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, IT WILL BE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE, THE NORTH WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
SANCHEZ
LONG TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS WE WRAP-UP THE
WEEK WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES. ON FRIDAY, THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THESE WILL SHIFT TO EAST TEXAS AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY REGION
ON SATURDAY. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW BOTH
DAYS, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. A WARMING TREND
WILL THEN TAKE PLACE NEXT WEEK WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST. BASED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, WE'RE LOOKING AT A 60-70% PROBABILITY OF
REACHING 90 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
SANCHEZ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH, BLOCKED BY A RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WILL STILL BE DRIFTING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A
WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE ELONGATING TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ALLOWING FOR A FEW MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN THE
REGION OF GREATEST ASCENT. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED
WITH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
PROVIDE MODEST DESTABILIZATION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND JUST OUR
EAST TEXAS COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. MEAGER INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR
WILL PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT, BUT ISOLATED
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP, IT WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET.
THE MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING EXACTLY WHERE
CUTOFF, CLOSED UPPER LOWS WILL DRIFT AND MEANDER, BUT THE
PREVAILING SIGNAL IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY AGAIN
TRANSITION INTO A CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. IN THIS SCENARIO,
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT FLANK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, KEEPING THE AREA RAIN-FREE ON SUNDAY. STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD RAIN-FREE WITH
TEMPERATURES NOTABLY CLIMBING WELL ABOVE-NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO THE 6-14 DAY PERIOD, THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THERE IS A 33-50% CHANCE OF ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF MAY BRINGING A SWIFT END
TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF COOL AND RAINY DAYS.
12
AVIATION
/ISSUED 123 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025/
/18Z TAFS/
AVIATION CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10KT WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS.
SANCHEZ
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 59 77 58 75 57 / 0 0 0 20 10
WACO 59 78 59 75 58 / 0 5 5 10 5
PARIS 57 74 57 72 55 / 0 0 0 30 10
DENTON 54 76 53 74 53 / 0 0 0 20 10
MCKINNEY 57 75 56 74 55 / 0 0 0 20 10
DALLAS 59 77 59 75 59 / 0 0 0 20 10
TERRELL 58 78 57 75 56 / 0 0 0 20 10
CORSICANA 61 81 60 77 59 / 0 5 0 20 10
TEMPLE 60 81 59 79 57 / 0 10 5 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 55 77 54 76 53 / 0 5 0 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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