686
FXUS64 KFWD 072313
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
613 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
- DRY AND HOT WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
EXPECTED NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
..THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A CUT-OFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER AND ANY MEANINGFUL
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND
ISENTROPIC DESCENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS. TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER 5
MPH WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG (20% CHANCE) DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE BETWEEN 3 AND 8AM.
..THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHERN BAJA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN CUT-OFF
DISTURBANCE AND EJECT INTO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIP FROM
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH IN THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY, THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (10 TO 15%) OF A COUPLE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 36 (OR A LINE FROM CAMERON TO COMANCHE). THE TIME
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE BRIEF, MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 3 AND 6PM.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
DOWN INTO THE 50S.
DARRAH
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 201 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025/
UPDATE:
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS WE WRAP-UP THE
WEEK WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES. ON FRIDAY, THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THESE WILL SHIFT TO EAST TEXAS AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY REGION
ON SATURDAY. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW BOTH
DAYS, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. A WARMING TREND
WILL THEN TAKE PLACE NEXT WEEK WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST. BASED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, WE'RE LOOKING AT A 60-70% PROBABILITY OF
REACHING 90 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
SANCHEZ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH, BLOCKED BY A RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WILL STILL BE DRIFTING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A
WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE ELONGATING TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ALLOWING FOR A FEW MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN THE
REGION OF GREATEST ASCENT. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED
WITH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
PROVIDE MODEST DESTABILIZATION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND JUST OUR
EAST TEXAS COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. MEAGER INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR
WILL PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT, BUT ISOLATED
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP, IT WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET.
THE MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING EXACTLY WHERE
CUTOFF, CLOSED UPPER LOWS WILL DRIFT AND MEANDER, BUT THE
PREVAILING SIGNAL IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY AGAIN
TRANSITION INTO A CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. IN THIS SCENARIO,
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT FLANK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, KEEPING THE AREA RAIN-FREE ON SUNDAY. STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD RAIN-FREE WITH
TEMPERATURES NOTABLY CLIMBING WELL ABOVE-NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO THE 6-14 DAY PERIOD, THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THERE IS A 33-50% CHANCE OF ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF MAY BRINGING A SWIFT END
TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF COOL AND RAINY DAYS.
12
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
THERE IS A 20 TO 30% CHANCE FOR FOG ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS (KACT)
BETWEEN 05Z AND 13Z. COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS, BUT
SHOULD FOG DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL, EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO DROP
INTO THE 1-3SM RANGE. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE TIMEFRAME FOR POTENTIAL
FOG WITH A 6SM BR FM GROUP IN THE KACT TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS
(320-350) AT 5-10 KNOTS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR DFW METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
DARRAH
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 60 75 59 75 57 / 0 0 0 20 10
WACO 60 77 59 75 58 / 0 10 5 10 5
PARIS 57 73 57 72 55 / 0 0 0 30 10
DENTON 55 74 54 74 53 / 0 0 0 20 10
MCKINNEY 57 74 57 74 55 / 0 0 0 20 10
DALLAS 60 76 59 75 59 / 0 0 0 20 10
TERRELL 59 75 58 75 56 / 0 0 0 20 10
CORSICANA 61 78 60 77 59 / 0 5 0 20 10
TEMPLE 60 79 60 79 57 / 0 10 10 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 56 75 55 76 53 / 0 0 0 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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