073
FXUS64 KFWD 080537
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1237 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY AND HOT WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
EXPECTED NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH FRIDAY/
A PAIR OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTERS (ONE NEAR SPRINGFIELD, MO AND
THE OTHER NEAR TOMBSTONE, AZ) WILL BOTH TRANSITION INTO OPEN
SHORTWAVES WHILE MOVING EAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TOGETHER
THESE FEATURES WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT DRIER AIR COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION FOG-FREE.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF
THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES, BUT HIGHS WILL STILL REACH WELL INTO THE
70S.
MEANWHILE, THE SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE WEST WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT, BUT WILL STILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS WHERE A FEW STRAY STORMS MAY ENTER.
BOTH SHORTWAVES WILL MERGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, HELPING TO
DEEPEN A LARGER SCALE, POSITIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, EFFECTIVELY REINFORCING THE COLD FRONT. NORTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ON FRIDAY AS A RESULT, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. A CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO REDEVELOP NEAR THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH, AND WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON
FRIDAY. MODEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES BEING EAST OF I-35 NEAR THE UPPER LOW
CENTER. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR SHOULD ALL BUT
ELIMINATE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
30
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 201 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025/
UPDATE:
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS WE WRAP-UP THE
WEEK WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES. ON FRIDAY, THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THESE WILL SHIFT TO EAST TEXAS AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY REGION
ON SATURDAY. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW BOTH
DAYS, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. A WARMING TREND
WILL THEN TAKE PLACE NEXT WEEK WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST. BASED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, WE'RE LOOKING AT A 60-70% PROBABILITY OF
REACHING 90 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
SANCHEZ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH, BLOCKED BY A RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WILL STILL BE DRIFTING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A
WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE ELONGATING TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ALLOWING FOR A FEW MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN THE
REGION OF GREATEST ASCENT. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED
WITH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
PROVIDE MODEST DESTABILIZATION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND JUST OUR
EAST TEXAS COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. MEAGER INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR
WILL PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT, BUT ISOLATED
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP, IT WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET.
THE MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING EXACTLY WHERE
CUTOFF, CLOSED UPPER LOWS WILL DRIFT AND MEANDER, BUT THE
PREVAILING SIGNAL IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY AGAIN
TRANSITION INTO A CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. IN THIS SCENARIO,
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT FLANK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, KEEPING THE AREA RAIN-FREE ON SUNDAY. STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD RAIN-FREE WITH
TEMPERATURES NOTABLY CLIMBING WELL ABOVE-NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO THE 6-14 DAY PERIOD, THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THERE IS A 33-50% CHANCE OF ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF MAY BRINGING A SWIFT END
TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF COOL AND RAINY DAYS.
12
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10
KT 09-12Z AS A WEAK FRONT EASES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. SHALLOW
FOG NEAR KGKY WILL SCOUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF NORTHWEST WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT ACTIVITY WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF KACT.
30
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 60 77 59 75 57 / 0 0 0 30 10
WACO 61 79 59 76 58 / 0 0 5 30 5
PARIS 57 74 57 73 55 / 0 0 0 30 10
DENTON 56 74 57 73 53 / 0 0 0 30 10
MCKINNEY 58 76 57 74 55 / 0 0 0 30 10
DALLAS 61 78 60 75 59 / 0 0 0 30 10
TERRELL 60 77 59 75 56 / 0 0 0 30 10
CORSICANA 61 78 60 75 59 / 0 0 0 30 10
TEMPLE 60 79 60 77 57 / 0 5 5 20 0
MINERAL WELLS 56 75 56 74 53 / 0 0 5 30 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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