699
FXUS64 KFWD 080729
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
229 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY AND HOT WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
EXPECTED NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1237 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025/
/THROUGH FRIDAY/
A PAIR OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTERS (ONE NEAR SPRINGFIELD, MO AND
THE OTHER NEAR TOMBSTONE, AZ) WILL BOTH TRANSITION INTO OPEN
SHORTWAVES WHILE MOVING EAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TOGETHER
THESE FEATURES WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT DRIER AIR COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION FOG-FREE.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF
THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES, BUT HIGHS WILL STILL REACH WELL INTO THE
70S.
MEANWHILE, THE SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE WEST WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT, BUT WILL STILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS WHERE A FEW STRAY STORMS MAY ENTER.
BOTH SHORTWAVES WILL MERGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, HELPING TO
DEEPEN A LARGER SCALE, POSITIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, EFFECTIVELY REINFORCING THE COLD FRONT. NORTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ON FRIDAY AS A RESULT, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. A CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO REDEVELOP NEAR THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH, AND WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON
FRIDAY. MODEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES BEING EAST OF I-35 NEAR THE UPPER LOW
CENTER. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR SHOULD ALL BUT
ELIMINATE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
30
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/
DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW MEANDERING
OVER EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, WE ARE LOOKING AT A QUIET WEEKEND ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHUNT MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER EAST
AND SOUTHEAST, NOW KEEPING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA RAIN-FREE ON
SATURDAY -- THE PRIMARY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE
PREVAILING NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW US TO ENJOY THE LAST
VESTIGES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE HEAT IS ON NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. BY MONDAY, SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO RETURN AND THE WARM UP BEGINS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING FROM
THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ON MONDAY TO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S ON
WEDNESDAY. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST VERIFIES, BOTH DFW AND WACO
COULD BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR
REFERENCE, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 14TH:
DFW: 95 F SET IN 1955 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 93 F)
WACO: 96 F SET IN 1925 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 94 F)
12
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1237 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025/
/06Z TAFS/
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10
KT 09-12Z AS A WEAK FRONT EASES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. SHALLOW
FOG NEAR KGKY WILL SCOUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF NORTHWEST WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT ACTIVITY WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF KACT.
30
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 59 75 58 76 / 0 0 30 0 0
WACO 79 59 76 58 75 / 0 5 30 5 5
PARIS 74 57 73 55 75 / 0 0 30 0 0
DENTON 74 57 73 53 75 / 0 0 30 0 0
MCKINNEY 76 57 74 55 75 / 0 0 30 0 0
DALLAS 78 60 75 58 76 / 0 0 30 0 0
TERRELL 77 59 75 56 75 / 0 0 30 0 5
CORSICANA 78 60 75 59 76 / 0 0 30 5 5
TEMPLE 79 60 77 57 77 / 5 5 20 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 75 56 74 53 76 / 0 5 30 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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