713
FXUS64 KFWD 081756
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1256 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY AND HOT WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
EXPECTED NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER NICE WEATHER AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S AS OF NOON. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THE
REST OF THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH
OUR SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD BEFORE THEY
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
AS ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. A FEW
ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED, BUT GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND WEAK SHEAR, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. OTHERWISE,
BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S REGIONWIDE.
SANCHEZ
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 229 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/
DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW MEANDERING
OVER EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, WE ARE LOOKING AT A QUIET WEEKEND ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHUNT MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER EAST
AND SOUTHEAST, NOW KEEPING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA RAIN-FREE ON
SATURDAY -- THE PRIMARY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE
PREVAILING NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW US TO ENJOY THE LAST
VESTIGES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE HEAT IS ON NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. BY MONDAY, SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO RETURN AND THE WARM UP BEGINS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING FROM
THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ON MONDAY TO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S ON
WEDNESDAY. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST VERIFIES, BOTH DFW AND WACO
COULD BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR
REFERENCE, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 14TH:
DFW: 95 F SET IN 1955 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 93 F)
WACO: 96 F SET IN 1925 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 94 F)
12
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE THEY INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KACT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BUT THE
HIGHEST THREAT FOR LIGHTNING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SITE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-03Z. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS, WE WILL JUST MENTION VCSH
AT THIS TIME.
SANCHEZ
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 59 76 58 77 / 0 0 30 20 5
WACO 79 59 76 58 77 / 10 20 20 20 5
PARIS 75 57 75 55 75 / 0 0 30 20 5
DENTON 76 55 76 53 76 / 0 0 30 20 0
MCKINNEY 75 57 75 56 76 / 0 0 30 20 0
DALLAS 78 60 76 58 77 / 0 0 30 20 5
TERRELL 77 58 76 56 76 / 0 0 30 20 5
CORSICANA 80 61 76 59 77 / 0 5 30 20 5
TEMPLE 81 60 78 58 79 / 20 20 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 77 56 75 54 77 / 0 5 20 5 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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