974
FXUS64 KFWD 081853
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
153 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY AND HOT WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
EXPECTED NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1256 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025/
/THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER NICE WEATHER AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S AS OF NOON. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THE
REST OF THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH
OUR SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD BEFORE THEY
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
AS ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. A FEW
ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED, BUT GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND WEAK SHEAR, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. OTHERWISE,
BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S REGIONWIDE.
SANCHEZ
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK. RECENT GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY. AFTER A WET START OF THE MONTH, A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES
THE PATTERN.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF A CUTOFF
LOW OVER LOUISIANA KEEPING US PRECIPITATION FREE WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. WE WILL ENJOY A FEW MORE NICE SPRING-LIKE DAYS
AS TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE 70S EACH AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S.
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A WARMING
TREND ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY.
FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
IF THE CURRENT FORECAST VERIFIES, BOTH DFW AND WACO COULD BE
FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR
REFERENCE, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 14TH:
DFW: 95 F SET IN 1955 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 94 F)
WACO: 96 F SET IN 1925 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 95 F)
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1256 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE THEY INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KACT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BUT THE
HIGHEST THREAT FOR LIGHTNING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SITE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-03Z. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS, WE WILL JUST MENTION VCSH
AT THIS TIME.
SANCHEZ
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 59 76 58 77 55 / 0 30 20 5 0
WACO 59 76 58 77 55 / 20 20 20 5 0
PARIS 57 75 55 75 52 / 0 30 20 5 0
DENTON 55 76 53 76 50 / 0 30 20 0 0
MCKINNEY 57 75 56 76 52 / 0 30 20 0 0
DALLAS 60 76 58 77 56 / 0 30 20 5 0
TERRELL 58 76 56 76 52 / 0 30 20 5 0
CORSICANA 61 76 59 77 55 / 5 30 20 5 0
TEMPLE 60 78 58 79 54 / 20 10 10 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 56 75 54 77 51 / 5 20 5 5 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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