281
FXUS64 KFWD 082317
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
617 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (30-40%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY AND HOT WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
EXPECTED NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
..THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN (LESS THAN 20%) FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S.
..FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE MORE FULLY OVER OUR
AREA BY TOMORROW, AS THE VORT MAX SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. MINIMAL CAPPING, AND WEAK
INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG) WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED
(30 TO 40% CHANCE OF RAIN) POP-UP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED (20%)
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
EAST OF THE I-35/35E CORRIDOR WHERE THERE IS MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION WILL
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE
50S EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
DARRAH
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 153 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025/
/SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK. RECENT GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY. AFTER A WET START OF THE MONTH, A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES
THE PATTERN.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF A CUTOFF
LOW OVER LOUISIANA KEEPING US PRECIPITATION FREE WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. WE WILL ENJOY A FEW MORE NICE SPRING-LIKE DAYS
AS TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE 70S EACH AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S.
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A WARMING
TREND ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY.
FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
IF THE CURRENT FORECAST VERIFIES, BOTH DFW AND WACO COULD BE
FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR
REFERENCE, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 14TH:
DFW: 95 F SET IN 1955 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 94 F)
WACO: 96 F SET IN 1925 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 95 F)
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
A SCATTERED DECK OF MVFR CIGS (SCT020-030) WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX (INCLUDING DFW TAF SITES) BETWEEN 14Z AND
18Z. THERE IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR BKN/OVC MVFR, BUT COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL OBS OF THIS IN THE ABOVE TIME PERIOD. WILL KEEP OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, WIDELY SCATTERED (30-40%) POPCORN RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP B/W 18Z FRI AND 00Z SAT. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE (20%) IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS, BUT THERE STILL MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP.
THE GREATEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL BE FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TX (INCLUDING THE DFW TAF SITES).
DARRAH
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 60 73 58 77 55 / 0 30 20 5 0
WACO 60 75 58 77 55 / 10 20 20 5 0
PARIS 58 73 55 75 52 / 0 40 20 5 0
DENTON 58 72 54 76 50 / 0 30 20 0 0
MCKINNEY 59 73 56 76 52 / 0 40 20 0 0
DALLAS 60 74 58 77 56 / 0 40 30 5 0
TERRELL 60 72 57 76 52 / 0 40 30 5 0
CORSICANA 61 74 60 77 55 / 10 30 30 5 0
TEMPLE 60 76 58 79 54 / 20 20 20 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 57 73 55 77 51 / 0 20 20 5 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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