921
FXUS64 KFWD 090520
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1220 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
- DRY AND HOT WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
EXPECTED NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SCATTERED MID AND UPPER CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL FEATURE
INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MORNING
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.
ON FRIDAY, A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX WITH
NORTH TEXAS POSITIONED WITHIN AN AREA OF BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE LOW. LIFT
SHOULD BECOME MAXIMIZED DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS COINCIDING
WITH PEAK HEATING AND WE'LL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. GENERALLY WEAK WIND
FIELDS, WEAK CAPPING, AND A LACK OF ANY NOTABLE SURFACE FORCING
SUGGEST THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL BE DISORGANIZED WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
HIGHEST EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE BETTER. WE'LL HAVE
POPS AT 20% TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. ANY ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
OTHERWISE, FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS
THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCE SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS AND INTO CENTRAL TX SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 153 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025/
/SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK. RECENT GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY. AFTER A WET START OF THE MONTH, A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES
THE PATTERN.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF A CUTOFF
LOW OVER LOUISIANA KEEPING US PRECIPITATION FREE WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. WE WILL ENJOY A FEW MORE NICE SPRING-LIKE DAYS
AS TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE 70S EACH AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S.
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A WARMING
TREND ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY.
FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
IF THE CURRENT FORECAST VERIFIES, BOTH DFW AND WACO COULD BE
FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR
REFERENCE, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 14TH:
DFW: 95 F SET IN 1955 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 94 F)
WACO: 96 F SET IN 1925 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 95 F)
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/6Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CONTINUED NORTH FLOW
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON (~20%) AND WE'LL CONTINUE WITH
VCSH FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 60 76 59 77 55 / 0 20 10 0 0
WACO 60 76 58 77 55 / 10 20 10 5 0
PARIS 56 74 56 75 52 / 0 20 10 0 0
DENTON 57 76 54 76 50 / 0 20 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 58 75 57 75 52 / 0 20 10 0 0
DALLAS 61 77 59 77 56 / 0 20 10 0 0
TERRELL 59 76 57 75 52 / 0 20 10 0 0
CORSICANA 60 77 58 77 55 / 10 20 10 5 0
TEMPLE 61 79 59 79 54 / 20 10 5 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 56 77 55 77 51 / 0 20 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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